Retail-sales figures out today are likely to show that Brazilians are feeling the pinch. Christmas notwithstanding, they almost certainly spent less in December than a month earlier. Sales may have edged up in 2014 compared with 2013, but not at anywhere near the blistering pace of recent memory. Consumers are now being squeezed by the spectre of recession and lay-offs on one side, and on the other by inflation, which accelerated to 7.1% (year-on-year) in January. Prices set by the government, including those of public transport and petrol, are being raised to fill a fiscal hole of 6.7% of GDP. The most severe drought on record is swelling bills for water and energy (most of which is generated by hydropower). So although household surveys suggest real incomes are still rising, sentiment certainly isn’t: last month consumer confidence was the lowest since records began in September 2005.