Middle East & Africa | Palestine and the UN

Another gambit

How far will Mahmoud Abbas push a resolution to end Israeli occupation?

|JERUSALEM

THE Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, has a habit of lurching from one supposedly game-changing initiative to another, then flinching in the face of resistance. After this summer’s war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza killed more than 2,000 Palestinians, at least half of whom were civilians, Mr Abbas threatened to join the International Criminal Court and have Israel indicted for war crimes, but then balked. Last week he threatened to cut security co-ordination with Israel when a Palestinian minister died following a scuffle with Israel’s troops near Ramallah—and promptly backtracked.

Palestinians therefore have good reason to ask themselves whether Mr Abbas’s latest gambit—seeking a UN Security Council resolution ordering Israel to end the occupation within two years—will be pursued with real vigour.

The ageing president is struggling to stay relevant. He abjured the use of violence against Israel, but still there is no prospect of a Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, in the territories Israel occupied in 1967. Abroad, regional and Western powers seem preoccupied by matters other than Palestine, not least the war against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. At home Mr Abbas’ own allies are tiring of his diplomatic manoeuvring, which never seems to come to fruition.

The Palestinian draft resolution would require Israel to end the occupation by the end of 2016 and agree to international protection for Palestinians. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, says any pullout would endanger Israel and bring armed Islamists to the outskirts of Tel Aviv. European leaders have suggested alternatives such as setting the parameters for negotiations and mandating an agreement—not withdrawal—within two years.

The Americans seem torn. They are loth to use their veto to defend an Israeli leader that President Barack Obama regards as obstructive. Equally, they worry that Israelis will interpret an American decision to withhold their veto as meddling in their election in March. Perhaps America will lean towards the Europeans.

Mr Abbas set a deadline of December 17th for tabling the motion, but arguments over its wording could continue for weeks—perhaps, hope Western diplomats, they might even last until after Israel’s election. Jordan’s ambassador to the UN, as the Arab League representative on the Security Council, is responsible for tabling the Palestinian draft, but says she has yet to receive a text. If Mr Abbas really wanted to push a vote through, ask Palestinian officials, would he not wait until January when more receptive members at the Security Council take up their seats?

Criticism of Mr Abbas is growing. For all but two of his ten years in office he has ruled by decree, and repeatedly postponed elections after his term lapsed five years ago. Western diplomats have sought to strengthen Mr Abbas as the best hope for peace. But even they worry that he is becoming part of the problem.

This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "Another gambit"

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