Britain | Trade unions

Back to the future

The Conservatives take on an old foe

Disbanded brothers

WHEN Margaret Thatcher came to power in 1979 she set about bulldozing the trade unions, which had frequently brought Britain grinding to a standstill in the 1970s. On May 27th David Cameron indicated that his Conservative government would try to finish the job. Under a proposed new law, strike ballots would need a 50% turnout for industrial action to be legal; in the case of “essential” public services they would need the support of 40% of eligible members. Unions called the measures “draconian”. Yet Mr Cameron’s plans may turn out to be less effective than they look.

Unions have lost much of the clout they once wielded. Since 1979 membership has dropped in both the private and public sectors, while the number of days lost to strikes has plummeted (see chart). The wage premium associated with union membership is around 5%, down from 15% in the 1990s. Deindustrialisation hastened unions’ decline. The average age of a member is 44 and rising, according to Stephen Machin of University College London.

So why the new crackdown? One reason is that in some sectors unions still hold sway. Between 1999 and 2013 membership of the Royal College of Nursing and the National Union of Teachers increased by 30% and 35% respectively, partly because unions offer a form of insurance against litigation by parents, patients and the like. The militant rail and maritime union (RMT) is small but can—and often does—bring London’s Underground and national railway services to a halt. On May 21st it extracted higher wages from the railway operator after threatening to prevent trains from running over a public holiday.

Another motive is political. The bill leaves Labour in a pickle. Support it and Labour will annoy its union donors; oppose it and the party will risk losing even more votes in the centre ground. The move is also an easy way to please Tory backbenchers who pine for Mrs T.

The plan could backfire. The most successful unions, such as the RMT, usually command high enough turnouts for the new thresholds not to make much difference. Meanwhile the new law might galvanise members who have not voted before in strike ballots, thinks Alex Bryson of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. The public may even be more sympathetic to strikers if they feel unions are being unduly squeezed, he says. Rather than weakening the unions, Mr Cameron may end up strengthening them.

This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline "Back to the future"

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