Middle East & Africa | The Israeli election

The price of Bibi’s comeback

The prime minister resoundingly wins a fourth term. But the divisive tactics that secured his victory at home may cause him trouble abroad

|Tel Aviv

WHEN the polls opened for Israel’s election on March 17th, there was an unmistakable air of defeat about the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu. He visited a rundown pedestrian street in the working-class town of Ashkelon to summon out the last votes. Even his Likud party seemed to forsake him: at least half a dozen senior party figures were making plans to run for the leadership the day after Mr Netanyahu’s expected resignation. Within hours, though, he would confound his friends, foes and professional pollsters alike with a convincing victory that will secure him a fourth term as prime minister.

In the final days of the campaign, polls said that Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party had fallen behind its rival, Zionist Union, led by Yitzhak Herzog. The prime minister’s focus on the threat of Iran’s nuclear programme, and his contentious speech to the American Congress denouncing President Barack Obama’s nuclear negotiations with Iran as a bad deal, had not done him much good. Likudniks seemed to care more about the cost of living.

Suddenly the man known for his deep suspicion of journalists opened up to anybody who would proffer a microphone. Strangely, he warned of dark “international forces funnelling millions” to propel the left wing to power. He recanted on his commitment in 2009 to Palestinian statehood, causing consternation abroad but little comment in Israel, where nobody really thought he was still a supporter of a two-state deal. More controversial among Israelis was his election-day warning of the danger that Arab citizens were “descending in droves on the polls”.

It was ugly electioneering, perhaps, but devastatingly effective. With nearly all votes counted, Likud had won 30 seats compared with Zionist Union’s 24. Mr Herzog congratulated Mr Netanyahu. The question, as Mr Netanyahu begins the weeks-long process of negotiating with potential allies to form a government, is the cost that Israel will pay for Mr Netanyahu’s desperate appeal to right-wingers.

The new government will not enjoy much of a grace period. The bad blood with the Obama administration was immediately apparent. The White House refrained from customary congratulations. There was no phone call from Mr Obama to Mr Netanyahu. Instead the prime minister got a brief call from the secretary of state, John Kerry. A White House spokesman said the administration was “deeply concerned by the use of divisive rhetoric in Israel that sought to undermine Arab-Israeli citizens”. It would also “re-evaluate” its approach to the diplomatic process in the light of Mr Netanyahu’s remarks on the two-state solution.

Further discord is doubtless ahead. Armed with Mr Netanyahu’s repudiation of the two-state solution, the Palestinian Authority is likely to redouble its effort to isolate Israel diplomatically in international forums. Next month it will join the International Criminal Court, where it will seek Israel’s indictment for alleged war crimes, both over the conduct of last summer’s war in Gaza and over Jewish settlements in the occupied territories. Mr Netanyahu will need American help to fend off such pressure, but Israeli diplomats fear that Mr Obama may be less willing to fight on Israel’s behalf, or will seek to extract a price.

So despite his public commitment to forming a right-wing government, and his activists’ chants of “We don’t want unity!” (with Zionist Union), Mr Netanyahu may well try to entice Mr Herzog into his government to create a diplomatic shield.

“Bibi wants Herzog in his government. He needs someone to take the flak that’s on the way from Obama and the Europeans,” says a senior Likud adviser. Likud prime ministers have often opted for partnership with Labour (the main component of Zionist Union) over their “natural partners” on the right: Yitzhak Shamir did it in 1988, Ariel Sharon in 2005 and Mr Netanyahu himself in 2009. Vilifying Labour as defeatist leftists during the campaign, and then enlisting them as a “moderating” influence in government, would be no surprise.

The complete, complex and convoluted history of Israel's Knesset, in one graphic

Boosted by his victory, Mr Netanyahu should be able to overcome the resistance of his devotees and the resentment of senior figures wanting ministerial jobs. For his part, Mr Herzog says he is ready for opposition. But as Labour colleagues start to agitate against his leadership, a cabinet sinecure might be attractive.

Mr Netanyahu will be looking for a new foreign minister to replace Avigdor Lieberman, whose far-right Yisrael Beitenu was reduced to only six seats (compared with 13 for the newly unified Arab parties that he sought to exclude from the Knesset). Who better than the respectable Mr Herzog, who could then help to clean up the mess left by the prime minister? It would not be the first time Mr Netanyahu says one thing and does something else.

This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "The price of Bibi’s comeback"

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