Advancing on Aleppo

AFTER more than two years of pitched battles between President Bashar Assad and his foes, rubble-strewn Aleppo is a shadow of its former self. Yet it is undoubtedly the biggest of the spoils still being contested in Syria’s war. At best, the rebels can hope to hang on to the few districts they still control. But if Mr Assad takes them, he will be one step closer to vanquishing the mainstream opposition that rose up against his rule in 2011.

His forces made a move towards that goal on February 17th when, backed by Shia militiamen including Hizbullah from Lebanon, they made surprise attacks on villages north of the city. There appeared to be two aims. First, to take the only road from rebel-held areas of Aleppo to Turkey, thus blocking supplies and encircling the opposition. Second, to break into Nubl and Zehraa, Shia settlements long encircled by rebels.

Gaining and keeping full control over Aleppo, the northern city with a pre-war population of at least 3m, will not be simple. By the evening of February 17th rebels claimed to have taken back two of the villages and to have killed many loyalist soldiers. But state TV said the government had taken six localities and some reports said it had cut off the road. The attack is likely to continue. Al Watan, a pro-government paper, reported on February 16th that the army aims to surround Aleppo completely this week.

If it succeeds, Mr Assad may try the starve-into-submission tactic he has used on neighbourhoods of Damascus such as Yarmouk. Another ruthless tactic is his continued use of barrel bombs. In one of the bloodiest recent episodes in the war, on February 9th and 10th, these crude devices killed at least 18 people in Douma, a rebel-held area of Damascus.

All this dooms a proposal—never a realistic one—made by Staffan de Mistura, the UN envoy to Syria, to halt the fighting in Aleppo. On February 17th he said Damascus had accepted a six-week ceasefire, but few are convinced it will keep its word. Shameless though Mr Assad’s recent deeds and words have been (he called reports of barrel bombs “a childish story”), he has the upper hand. Mr Assad has gained from the West’s focus on Islamic State, who are also among his adversaries, leaving him free to deal with Aleppo and the rest.