Distant hopes

EVEN by Afghanistan’s murderous, war-torn standards (see chart) it has been a gory week. More than 100 civilians were injured or killed in acts of terrorism in just 48 hours. Yet, after the first meeting in years this month between an Afghan government delegation and senior leaders of the Taliban insurgency, the prospects for peace actually look better than for a long time.

That is mainly thanks to Afghanistan’s president, Ashraf Ghani. He has taken big risks to improve relations with Pakistan, whose influence can sway the Taliban. But also the pressures on the Taliban have changed. The rise of other extremists loyal to Islamic State (the blood-drenched group that controls parts of Iraq and Syria) has made the Taliban zealots appear almost moderate by comparison.

Both sides face challenges from their own sides. Mr Ghani’s courtship of Pakistan, an arch-enemy detested by many Afghans, has allowed his predecessor, Hamid Karzai, to emerge as a spoiler. Portraying himself as a protector of Afghan sovereignty, Mr Karzai is thought by some to be plotting a return to power. He presided over a regime so corrupt that the Taliban were able to pose as liberators. Yet some Afghans are now nostalgic for his rule.

Taliban leaders are also divided. Some field commanders, fed up with what they see as feeble leadership, have defected to Islamic State. Their sanctuaries are under threat. After an attack on a school in Peshawar in Pakistan in December by the Pakistani Taliban, which killed more than 140 people, the Pakistan army has grown less tolerant of insurgent havens.

The Taliban have changed since they were driven from power in Kabul in 2001, and now accept that they are unlikely ever again to rule the whole country. As Franz-Michael Mellbin, the EU’s ambassador in Kabul, puts it: “They fully understand that if their goal was to re-establish the regime from 2001, they might as well close up shop.” So their best chance of winning legitimacy is to enter politics. It is also the best hope of ending the war, though to what extent Mr Ghani is willing to share power is uncertain. Many Afghans would find the idea of the Taliban joining the cabinet repellent, but would accept it if it brought an end to a conflict that has spluttered on for nearly four decades.

Such considerations are still distant. At their meeting in the hill town of Murree outside Islamabad, the two sides did little more than size each other up. A spokesman for Mr Ghani called it a “brainstorming session”. All they agreed on was to meet again after Ramadan, the fasting month, with a “comprehensive list of concerns and demands”. But that is progress. The Taliban have in the past refused direct talks with the Kabul government, which they denounce as an American puppet.

Another cause for optimism is the involvement of China, which has encouraged the talks, and has a powerful influence over Pakistan. Nervous about the spread of radicalism among members of the largely Muslim Uighur minority in its western region of Xinjiang, China has an interest in a stable Afghanistan. In May it facilitated an informal meeting in Xinjiang’s capital, Urumqi, between the Taliban and Afghan officials.

Anything more than tentative optimism would be premature, however. It is not even clear whom the Taliban delegation at Murree represented. Its members were said to have close links to Pakistan’s spy agency, the ISI. They were swiftly denounced after the meeting by the Taliban’s political office in Qatar, though a statement purportedly from the group’s overall leader, Mullah Omar, later endorsed the talks. Nor is it known how closely Taliban leaders hiding in Pakistan (such as Mullah Omar, spooks suspect) co-ordinate operations in Afghanistan. Since the withdrawal of most foreign troops from Afghanistan last year, Taliban field commanders have stepped up attacks on the Afghan army. No one expects a swift let-up in the violence. Military gains would strengthen the Taliban’s position in any serious negotiation. So even optimists in Afghanistan see no end soon to its long, bloody nightmare.