China's bottom line

AFTER more than seven years of calm relations between China and Taiwan, leaders in Beijing are beginning to warn that tensions will rise again if the winner of Taiwan’s next presidential election, in January, fails to make a clear commitment to the notion that there is only one China. On March 4th President Xi Jinping said "pro-independence forces" in Taiwan were the biggest threat to peace in the Taiwan Strait. His remarks were clearly intended as a warning to Taiwan's independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has a good chance of returning to power. Its leader, Tsai Ing-wen (pictured above), faces a tough choice: anger China, or try to placate it and risk appearing weak. Since Taiwan's ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT), ousted the DPP in the island's presidential polls in 2008, it has agreed with China's line that relations between the two sides should be based on what is often called the "1992 consensus"; namely that both sides accept there is but one China, while defining that term in their own different ways. Mr Xi said this accord was a “precondition for conducting exchanges with Taiwan." Ms Tsai, however, has not accepted that there is such a consensus, and has set out her own conditions: ties with China must benefit Taiwan’s democratic development, promote regional security and stability, and be reciprocal and mutually beneficial. A senior DPP official, Joseph Wu, says China's threats are not conducive to peace. Much is at stake. The KMT’s acceptance of the 1992 consensus has played a critical role in lowering tensions with China and boosting cross-strait economic ties. Trade volume last year exceeded $198 billion, according to mainland statistics. In recent days, Chinese officials have drawn attention to the tenth anniversary on March 14th of the adoption of an anti-secession law by China’s parliament. Their message is that China reserves the right to invoke the bill, which authorises the use of force against Taiwan should China consider that there is no chance of peaceful unification. Few believe that China would use a DPP victory as a pretext to attack Taiwan, but many of the island’s businesspeople worry that a renewed chill in cross-strait relations could impede trade and investment flows between the two sides and make it more difficult for Taiwan to sign free-trade agreements with other countries. China's prime minister, Li Keqiang, in his annual press conference on March 15th, reasserted the importance of both the "one-China principle" and the 1992 consensus. But he also promised that "closer attention" would be paid to the interests of Taiwanese investors, and that China would "continue to pursue preferential policies" towards them. In the last elections, in 2012, the KMT candidate, President Ma Ying-jeou, appeared to gain an advantage because of voters’ worries about Ms Tsai’s unwillingness to accept the 1992 consensus and the damage that might do to Taiwan’s relations with China. Since then, however, fears have grown that some industries might be overwhelmed by competition from China and jobs might be threatened. A year ago students occupied Taiwan’s legislative chamber in an unprecedented protest against a trade deal with China; hundreds of thousands took to the streets in support. In municipal elections in November the KMT suffered one of its worst electoral losses since the party took refuge on the island at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. Voters’ anxieties about the potential impact of cross-strait economic ties on their livelihoods may have been a factor. "Accepting the 1992 consensus before the [next] election would be political suicide for the DPP," says George Tsai of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. The KMT is now struggling to remould its image. The hugely unpopular Mr Ma has resigned as KMT chairman; a charismatic city mayor, Eric Chu, has replaced him. But the party is still plagued by infighting and has yet to find a presidential candidate. Mr Chu, its best hope, says he does not want to run. America is probably anxious. It does not want to be seen in Taiwan as interfering in the politics of a fellow democracy. But America wants the DPP to show it can maintain good ties with China; it does not want to be sucked into a conflict that might erupt should China lose patience. Mr Xi has shown a little impatience already. In 2013 he called for a “final resolution” of political disputes between the two sides. "These issues cannot be passed on from generation to generation," he said. Taiwanese voters appear increasingly less convinced.