Not as FARCical as it looks

By The DATA TEAM

THE FARC, Colombia’s oldest and strongest left-wing rebel army, begins a unilateral month-long ceasefire today. This is the second time in the past year that the guerrilla group has declared a ceasefire. The first, announced last December, started to come apart in April when a FARC unit killed 11 Colombian soldiers. That sparked an escalation of the war that jeopardised peace talks between the government and guerrillas, which have been taking place in Havana since 2012.

Although the war continues, the violence associated with it has ebbed. Massacres, kidnappings, disappearances and displacements are at historic lows. That is partly because the government has made gains against the FARC, which is now largely confined to remote areas. It has foresworn kidnapping as a means to raise funds.

Today’s ceasefire improves the chances of ending a conflict that has lasted for 50 years. Colombia’s president, Juan Manuel Santos, has said that the government will de-escalate its attacks on the guerrillas. To reassure Colombians, who suspect that the FARC is not really interested in peace and is dragging out the talks, Mr Santos says he will review their progress in November. If there is not enough, he could pull out.