The Centre Party holds

AS EXPECTED, Finnish voters on Sunday turned out their country's Conservative-led government and its pro-European prime minister, Alex Stubb. The opposition Centre Party came in a clear first, with 21% of the vote. But the verdict seemed more an expression of economic frustration and a rejection of the current government than an endorsement of a new one. Only the smallest of margins separated the runner-up parties: the Conservatives won 18%, the Finns Party 17.6%, and the Social Democrats 16.5%. Finns waited until the last minute to make up their minds. Less than a week before the election, more than 40% of voters were still undecided.

Finland has a long tradition of broad coalition governments, and Finns often say that they prefer to elect their politicians and then leave them alone to do their jobs. But voters have grown unusually fed up with the current government, which started out with six parties and now has four. The coalition is seen as being too broad and incapable of agreeing on necessary economic reforms. It has also failed in a major effort to reform the healthcare sector.

Juha Sipila, a businessman who took over as Centre Party leader in 2012, kept his campaign light on specifics. He is expected to keep his governing programme as vague as possible, to leave room for manoeuvre as he forms a coalition. But he will have a delicate job in handling the populist, anti-immigrant Finns Party. In 2011 the Finns Party tied for second place with 19% of the vote, but Timo Soini, the party's leader, chose to stay out of government rather than condone bail-out programmes for Greece and other peripheral euro-zone countries. Some in Brussels worry that if Mr Soini joins the coalition this time, Finland could make further Greek rescue programmes impossible, possibly forcing Greece out of the euro.

That may not come to pass. Mr Soini made it clear during the campaign that he is so eager to join government he would agree to virtually any compromise to secure a ministerial post. If the Finns Party signs on, Mr Sipila might need just one more partner to gain a majority, either the Social Democrats or the Conservatives. Ideologically, the Centre Party is closer to the Social Democrats. (The Conservatives and Social Democrats have probably bickered too much with each other in the current government to be willing to join a new one together.) A Centre-Social Democratic-Finns Party coalition would have unusually few parties for a Finnish government, and would leave small parties like the Left and the Christian Democrats with even less influence than they have now.

With the Finnish economy in recession, the election campaign has focused on pocketbook issues: jobs, social welfare, and cutting the deficit. Every party in Finland supports austerity; Mr Sipila has promised to balance the budget, but has not said how. But escalating tensions with Russia over Ukraine also played a role in the elections. "This is the first campaign in my long political career where you could talk about foreign and security policy without it being a problem," says Finland's foreign minister, Erkki Tuomioja.

Mr Sipila takes less of a hard line on Russian security threats than Mr Stubb, who backs joining NATO. (Only about 30% of Finns agree with him, according to polls.) But Mr Sipila quickly affirmed he supports continuing sanctions against Russia, and recent Finnish moves to hike the defence budget and strengthen military co-operation with other Nordic countries enjoy broad support. Voices in the Russian media and the Duma quickly characterised the Finnish election results as a rejection of confrontation with Russia. They should not be celebrating just yet.