A second Front

THERE was widespread relief in France on March 22nd after the far-right National Front failed to come out on top in first-round voting for departmental elections. Exit polls suggested that Marine Le Pen’s populist, anti-immigration party had come second to the centre-right UMP, led by Nicolas Sarkozy, a former president. This was far from the triumph that polls, and Ms Le Pen, had predicted.

It is a measure of how far Ms Le Pen’s party has come to dominate French politics that an election in which she came second is seen as a disappointment for her. Most polls had predicted she would net at least 30% of the vote, up from her previous best of 25% in the elections to the European Parliament in 2014. She has played deftly on disillusionment with mainstream politicians, high unemployment and a flat economy, campaigning as the candidate who stands up for the neglected against the tired and smug establishment. This election, she had predicted, would confirm that the National Front was the “first party of France”.

It was not to be. Exit polls suggested instead that Ms Le Pen had got 25%-26% of the vote. She was roundly beaten by Mr Sarkozy’s party, which exit polls showed had pulled in about 30%, defying expectations to rob Ms Le Pen of first place. With a strong first-round score, his party is set to sweep to victory in second-round voting, which takes place on March 29th.

For Mr Sarkozy, who was evicted from presidential office by François Hollande, the Socialist president, in 2012, this was a much-needed vote of confidence in his return to politics. After deciding last year to make a political comeback, and since securing the UMP leadership, he has struggled to reassert himself and to convince the public that he is the political leader France needs. The UMP’s surprisingly good first-round score will come as a relief. A strong showing in the second round would further strengthen Mr Sarkozy’s hand, and help his chances of pressing ahead with another presidential bid in 2017.

The clearest loser from the first round of voting was Mr Hollande, whose Socialist Party secured just under 20%. The most unpopular president in the history of the Fifth Republic, founded in 1958, Mr Hollande enjoyed a poll bounce after his statesmanlike management of the January terror attacks in Paris. But those gains have recently begun to fall away, as attention has turned from security to joblessness and economic drift.

Manuel Valls, the Socialist prime minister, briskly went on television on election night to congratulate voters for depriving the National Front of victory. He also urged them to vote against Ms Le Pen’s party in any second-round run-offs from which the Socialist candidates were evicted, as a “republican” gesture to deprive her of any departmental victories. This was in direct contrast to Mr Sarkozy, who told his electorate in similar situations to vote “ni ni”: neither for the National Front, nor for the left. All the same, the Socialist Party is now steeling itself for heavy losses next weekend.

As for Ms Le Pen, her disappointment needs to be put in perspective. It still looks as though, when final results come in, this will turn out to be the best national score that the National Front has ever achieved. In many cantons (the constituencies that make up the country’s departments), such as Carpentras in the south or Carvin in the north, the anti-European populist party came in first. It may be a relief to mainstream voters that Ms Le Pen's party has not pulled off the triumph she had predicted. But it is by no means the end to her hopes of building up a strong electoral base ahead of the presidential election of 2017, nor of then making it into the second round.