Mind-boggling maths

THE late Yitzhak Rabin used to joke that every koalitsia (coalition) contains a bit of goalitsia—a play on the Hebrew word goal, meaning disgust. Israeli politics is so fractured that coalitions are hard to create and fissile once in office.

Still, the groups fall into two broad camps: the centre-left led by Labour (now part of the Zionist Union alliance), which favours territorial compromise with Palestinians; and a centre-right alliance led by Likud that resists it.

The prime minister needs at least 61 votes in the 120-seat Knesset. The latest polls have Zionist Union leading Likud by 24-21. But the arithmetic helps Likud’s Binyamin Netanyahu more than Zionist Union’s Yitzhak Herzog.

Likud would naturally ally itself to Naftali Bennett’s settler-dominated Habayit Hayehudi (predicted to win 12 seats), Avigdor Lieberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu (5) and, if need be, Eli Yishai’s far-right Yahad party (4). That would create a core of 42 seats. Mr Herzog, for his part, has a natural partner only in Zahava Gal-On’s left-wing Meretz (6), which most strongly favours a Palestinian state, for a nucleus of 30 seats.

Two centrist factions are biddable by either camp. But Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu (9), which promotes economic reform, hews close to Likud and the secularist Yesh Atid (13) of Yair Lapid aligns more easily with Labour. This would give Mr Netanyahu 51 seats to Mr Herzog’s 43.

The religious parties tend to be kingmakers. Shas (7) appeals to Mizrahi Jews (originating mainly from Arab countries), whereas United Torah Judaism (6), draws on ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi (European) Jews. Both have drifted to the right. They could give the prime-ministership to Mr Netanyahu with a coalition of 64 seats. But they cannot assure a majority for Mr Herzog, leaving him with just 56 seats.

Mr Herzog thus needs a deal with the Joint List of Arab and communist groups that may get 13 seats. He would struggle to forge a formal alliance with anti-Zionist Arabs but they would certainly vote against a Netanyahu-led government.

To win, Mr Herzog needs several things to fall into place. First, Zionist Union must maintain its convincing lead over Likud to stake a moral claim to run the country. Second, it must not push Meretz below the minimum four-seat threshold. Third, it needs to draw away at least one of Mr Netanyahu’s allies. The one to watch is Kulanu. Yisrael Beiteinu could also defect. An expanded alliance, plus the Joint List, may then have the votes to stop Mr Netanyahu forming a centre-right coalition.

Mr Herzog could thus head a minority government backed from outside it by the Joint List or, if he can persuade religious parties to join him, a broader government with a “Jewish majority”. Even so, he would be leading an almost impossible coalition. Yisrael Beiteinu objects to sitting alongside Meretz. And the religious parties detest Mr Lapid’s Yesh Atid.

Labour and Likud may feel, as in the past, that the blackmail by smaller parties is so intolerable that they would rather join forces in a grand national unity government. With just 45 seats between them, they would still need some Lilliputians. What a goalitsia.