Walker runs

By M.D. & THE DATA TEAM

SCOTT WALKER announced formally on July 13th that he is entering the Republican field of presidential candidates. A solid campaigner, Mr Walker often places second behind Jeb Bush in polling of Republicans across the country and he currently leads the Republican slate in Iowa, which will hold the all-important first presidential nomination contest early next year. His campaigning style stresses his appeal to blue-collar conservatives, donning a leather jacket and participating in a Harley-Davidson event in Iowa last month for instance. As governor of Wisconsin he has taken on the state’s powerful public-sector unions.

The day before officially declaring that he is running he signed a state budget that, among other things, weakens tenure rights for professors at Wisconsin’s public universities. He asked for, and got, a change to state law that will ban abortions after the 20th week of pregnancy. He, along with Marco Rubio, poses the most serious challenge to Jeb Bush, should the well-financed front-runner stumble.

Mr Walker is the last of the serious candidates officially to announce that they are running, and although he did so 484 days before the general election he is a latecomer to throwing his hat in the ring. Ted Cruz kicked off this year’s season of presidential announcements back in March. Why do candidates announce so early?

Before the 1970s campaigns tended to be shorter. Candidates often announced only a few months before election day. Campaigns grew longer after the Democrats rewrote their party rules to give more weight to primary elections in the states rather than secretive negotiations at the nominating convention. This forced candidates to make their pitches directly to ordinary voters, which takes longer. The Republicans followed suit. The “invisible” primary campaign lasts even longer than the official one. Mr Bush created the Right to Rise political action committee, which supports many of Mr Bush’s campaign aims but is independent of the campaign, back in January, six months before formally declaring. For the six months ending June 30th, his super-PAC raised a staggering $103m; Mr Bush’s official campaign took in a further $11.4m in the two weeks since announcing on June 15th.