Flatlining

FOR years, it seemed like carbon-dioxide emissions rose relentlessly, whatever the world’s level of economic activity and however much countries spent on no- or low-carbon energy. Now, though, that depressing fact may be changing.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), made up mostly of energy-consuming rich countries, reckons worldwide emissions of carbon dioxide in 2014 were the same as in 2013. The only occasions CO₂ emissions have actually fallen were in the early 1980s and 2008, both periods of economic contraction, but this is the first time for many years that the world economy has grown (up by 3.3% according to the IMF) and emissions have not risen too. In the European Union, GDP went up by 1.4% last year but CO₂ emissions from energy use fell by 6%. Over the past five years GDP among all rich countries has risen by 7% but CO₂ emissions from energy have fallen by 4%, offsetting a rise in developing countries.

The IEA’s finding suggests the regulations put in place to rein in pollution are starting to have an impact. In the EU, for instance, the number of household appliances has risen by a quarter in the past ten years, but household electricity use has been flat—testimony (probably) to the many efficiency requirements brought in under European law. The IEA reckons three-quarters of the cars sold around the world in 2014 met some kind of vehicle-emission or other efficiency standard, and that the fuel-efficiency of new cars in the EU last year was 28% higher than it had been in 2000 (the global improvement was less—16%—but still significant). The IEA reckons that, in America, where emissions ticked up slightly in 2014, vehicle-emission standards have prevented more CO₂ entering the atmosphere than switching from coal-fired to gas-fired power stations.

The East is green

The other big contributor to the emissions slowdown is a shift in the pattern of economic activity, especially in China, the world’s largest polluter. As manufacturing and heavy industry decline as a share of GDP (and services increase) demand for coal is dwindling. According to China’s national bureau of statistics, coal consumption fell by almost 3% in 2014—pushing CO₂ emissions down slightly.

The flattening of global emissions will not of itself make much difference to the climate. Though the quantity did not increase, people still threw a lot of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere last year. The standard measurement of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, taken at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, has therefore barely flickered in its upward rise. Though it ebbs and flows on an annual cycle which matches the growth and dormancy of the great forests of the northern hemisphere, it passed 400 parts per million this January, the earliest in the year it has exceeded this benchmark. Even if emissions stay flat, the world remains on course towards a temperature rise of around 3°C by 2100, compared with pre-industrial levels. To keep the rise to 2°C (which most climate scientists think is needed) would require emissions to fall.

All the same, the IEA’s finding is remarkable. It happened without either a climate-change treaty or a global carbon price. And, by providing evidence emissions can actually be reined in, it might make the successful negotiation of a new climate treaty in Paris at the end of this year a bit more likely. As Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist says, “these numbers make me hopeful for Paris, full stop. But if nothing comes of those talks, the targets scientists set for us [a 2°C rise] may well be out of reach.”