Why a referendum? After months of negotiations between Greece and its creditors over a deal to extend its bail-out programme, on June 26th Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister, shocked his counterparts by terminating negotiations just days before the bail-out was due to expire and announcing he would put the matter to a referendum. The referendum, to be held on Sunday, July 5th, would ask the Greek people whether the creditors’ terms were acceptable. In a televised address, Mr Tsipras said the creditors' proposal of June 25th (some of whose conditions had already been moderated by the time negotiations broke off) “contravened the founding principles and values of Europe”. Mr Tsipras and his far-left Syriza party have since been campaigning for citizens to vote No.
So now what? This Sunday, starting at 7am, Greeks will vote at polling stations all around the country under more or less the same process used for the country’s general elections. Schools and other public buildings in the 56 voting districts will be open at least until 7pm; some have suggested the voting may last longer due to the long summer daylight hours. Exit polls may begin showing results shortly afterwards, but official results from the government will come in slower. Because the referendum is unprecedented and anxieties over voting fraud or failure to follow proper procedures are rife, final results will probably not be announced until late on Sunday evening.
What are they voting on? This question, unfortunately, is precisely the subject of the debates animating the streets and cafés of Athens at the moment. Some say the question is whether the terms of the deal offered by the creditors over a week ago are acceptable, or whether a better one should be negotiated. Others argue the question is ultimately one of Greece’s membership of the European Union and the euro zone. They say a No vote would move the country towards Grexit.
It is hardly surprising that people are confused: the ballot paper (pictured) is baffling. It asks voters whether they accept the (since expired) creditors’ proposal of June 25th. That proposal (which the average Greek on the street has not read) was perceived as particularly harsh; it included the sensitive point of raising taxes on tourism. So it suits Mr Tsipras to put this, rather than the more toned-down subsequent proposal, on the ballot as part of his campaign for a No vote. In multiple appearances over the past week, he has insisted that a win for the No camp will put him in a stronger position to negotiate a more favourable deal.
Those campaigning for a Yes vote say that Greece’s position in Europe would be entirely discredited if it rejects the deal, and that it would risk having to leave the EU. Euro-zone officials such as the Netherlands' Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, and Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, have warned that Greece’s future in the single currency will be in grave peril if it votes No. “One illusion must be swept from the table: that if the outcome is negative then everything can be renegotiated,” Mr Dijsselbloem said earlier this week. Mr Tsipras has poured oil onto the fire by claiming that Greece is being “blackmailed”—a popular slogan on posters around Athens—and that those who say a No vote means an exit from the euro zone are knowingly lying.
The result will come down to which argument voters in Greece believe, whom they trust more (or rather, whom they distrust least) and whom they blame most for their current predicament.
Isn't there some sort of legal hitch? Yes. On Friday a Greek court ruled on a suit challenging the constitutionality of the referendum due to serious legal and practical problems. The court declined to block the referendum, but its validity could be challenged after it is held.
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The referendum breaks rule number one of any popular vote: it lacks a clearly formulated question. Further, the timeframe is absurdly short; Greeks are being given one week to inform themselves on a life-changing decision whose consequences will play out for generations. Public information campaigns have been more emotional than informative, and many Greeks will vote without fully understanding the consequences—not surprising given that euro-zone officials themselves differ in their interpretations. (In contrast, Scots had 18 months to debate their recent referendum on independence.) The government is actively campaigning for a No vote, and has even made No the first box on the ballot, contrary to normal procedure. Many citizens will fail to vote because they live in districts far from those where they are registered; many Greeks are registered in their birthplaces, and with both time and cash short, travelling to vote in a referendum is a bridge too far.
What will the outcome be? Most polls suggest a narrow lead for the Yes campaign, though the mood is changing too rapidly to judge. There are also many swing voters. One gentleman at an Athens cashpoint said he had been in the No camp until Monday, when the country's banks were shuttered; angry at restrictions on access to his money, he has moved to the Yes camp. This argument has become more and more common this week, particularly among pensioners, who have been hit especially hard by capital controls.
But while the country looks increasingly polarised, many of the arguments made by both oxi ("no") and nai ("yes") voters are strikingly similar. Both want a better life for themselves and their children and most believe this should be within the EU and the euro zone. Tragically, due to the shambolic handling of the referendum, there is a real chance that those on the winning side will find that they have voted for something very different from what they intended.
