Sunflower seeds

A YEAR ago Taiwanese students occupied the main debating chamber of Taiwan’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan, in an unprecedented protest against a trade deal with China. Thousands of people joined demonstrations in support, many of them brandishing sunflowers (see picture): a rebuke to the murkiness of cross-strait negotiations. The impact of the Sunflower Movement and other recent grassroots campaigns has been wide-ranging. Not only have efforts by Taiwan to liberalise its trade with China faltered, but the island’s political chemistry has begun to change too.

Activists are preparing to stage rallies on April 10th to mark the anniversary of the three-week sit-in, which they agreed to end following a promise by the government to give the legislature more oversight of cross-strait agreements (politicians are still bickering over the terms of this). Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), would be delighted by a high turnout: as the island prepares for presidential and parliamentary elections next January, it welcomes any opportunity to highlight the discomfiture of the ruling Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT). The DPP has a good chance of winning the presidential polls, although the KMT—despite its recent drubbing in mayoral elections—is likely to keep a majority in the legislature.

The DPP sees former participants in the Sunflower Movement and other social activists as potential recruits. Many of them are young people who feel gloomy about job prospects, and who are quick to blame their woes on China. On March 25th, 119 Sunflower participants were put on trial, accused of offences such as trespass and violating laws on public assembly. One student leader, Chen Wei-ting, told the court that the protesters had saved Taiwan from economic domination by China. Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP’s presidential candidate, has hired a few young activists, including Sunflower ones, to lead party departments.

Observers speak of a new “third force” in the island’s politics led by such activists who have campaigned on issues ranging from nuclear power to bullying in the army. They sympathise far more with the DPP than with the KMT, but they complicate the strategies of both.

One of them is Fan Yun, an academic who gave street seminars to students about democracy during the Sunflower unrest. She plans to run in next January’s legislative elections as a candidate for the Social Democratic Party (SDP) which she launched on March 29th. Other SDP candidates include a lesbian-rights activist who is expected to run in a glitzy commercial district of Taipei, possibly against a stuffy KMT lawmaker who opposes gay marriage. The New Power Party, founded in January by a former heavy-metal rocker and human-rights campaigner, wants formal independence from China.

It is unclear whether any of these and more than a dozen other new parties that have registered in the past year will gain seats in the legislature. Some may merge with the KMT or, more likely, the DPP. Their supporters would help the DPP broaden its alliances beyond those who emphasise “ethnic” differences between original dwellers of Taiwan and immigrants (or their descendants) who fled to the island at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. KMT voters alienated by bickering between the two parties over relations with China may be attracted by third-force parties’ emphasis on domestic reforms.

The DPP has reason to worry, too. The new parties have profound misgivings about China’s economic relationship with Taiwan. As far as DPP leaders go, Ms Tsai is relatively pragmatic and wants to keep relations with China on an even keel, despite her resentment of the KMT’s cosiness with China. If she hopes to co-opt the young activists, she may have to take greater risks with the island’s truculent neighbour.

Even the KMT has adjusted its policies in response to grassroots activism—and not just on matters relating to cross-strait trade. It had long insisted that nuclear power was vital for the island, but in the past year it has halted the construction of a new nuclear reactor complex. The KMT’s recently appointed chairman, Eric Chu, says he wants Taiwan to become nuclear-free. That is a big break with tradition indeed.