Europe | Turkish politics

The gambler

The president rolls the dice by calling new elections

Aug 27th 2015|ISTANBUL

WHEN he became Turkey’s first popularly elected head of state last year, Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to be no “ordinary president”. Departing from political tradition once more, he has now called early elections for the first time in the country’s modern history after his Justice and Development party (AK) lost its 12-year majority in parliament on June 7th and failed to form a coalition government.

The setback has not dented Mr Erdogan’s oft-voiced determination to create a powerful executive presidency. It may even have made a return to the polls more attractive, showing him firmly in charge. “Agree or not, Turkey’s regime has de facto changed,” he said on August 14th, implying that a rewriting of the constitution that he has long sought may be unnecessary. Proving his point, Mr Erdogan has stretched the boundaries of his supposedly non-partisan role. He refused to give the opposition leader, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the chance to form a government, triggering allegations of staging “a civilian coup”.

Returning to the polls is a gamble, however. Mr Erdogan appears convinced that voters, having directed a warning shot at his party at the recent polls, will return it to power. But pollsters see little evidence of that. For the time being, Ahmet Davutoglu, the prime minister, has been asked to form an interim unity government. Most of the opposition has refused to join, with the exception of the main pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP).

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The situation is complicated by clashes in Kurdish areas in the country’s south-east between regional independence fighters and the armed forces, which have claimed hundreds of lives. Several municipalities have declared self-rule and elected mayors have been remanded in custody. The authorities have imposed curfews in towns where military operations are under way and more than 100 areas have been designated “temporary military zones”.

Funerals of soldiers have become a daily feature on television and emotions are running high. While AK is aiming to drive up nationalist votes, some bereaved relatives have turned against it. “Why are those who earlier talked of a peace settlement now saying war to the end?” shouted a grief-stricken lieutenant-colonel while burying his younger brother.

The situation in neighbouring Syria is another source of volatility. Turkey has opened its airbases to American aircraft targeting Islamic State fighters and started its own bombing campaign. A backlash of some kind is likely. At the same time, the economy, once a pillar of AK’s popularity, is stagnating. The Turkish lira has plummeted and Mehmet Simsek, the finance minister, says that “Turkey’s gains of the past 12-13 years are currently at risk.”

Mr Erdogan believes turbulence will encourage Turks to vote for security and certainty. “Chaos prevails in this country because there is no presidential system,” one minister asserted. But the president’s oversized ambitions and his interference in the process of forming a government irk many voters. So too does a sense that corruption is getting worse. When Turks vote again on November 1st they will have a chance to show whom they hold responsible for their woes.

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline "The gambler"