the WoRld AheAd 2024

Future-gazing analysis, predictions and speculation

From the editor

The World Ahead The World Ahead 2024

Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2024

A letter from the editor of The World Ahead

Contents

Contents

Leaders

The World Ahead Democracy in danger

2024 will be stressful for those who care about liberal democracy

In theory it should be a triumphant year for democracy. In practice it will be the opposite

The World Ahead Multipolar disorder

The world must try to break a vicious cycle of insecurity

The fragility of the Western coalition is a crucial weakness


The World Ahead Middle East in turmoil

Don’t give up on peace in the Middle East

But the process of getting there will be alarmingly fragile


The World Ahead Whither Ukraine?

Europe needs to step up support for Ukraine

As a long war with Russia looms, American support can no longer be depended on

The World Ahead America’s fateful choice

America will need a new vocabulary to discuss its presidential election

Unprecedented, uncharted, not unthinkable

The World Ahead The world economy

Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy

Inflation has fallen, but vulnerabilities remain

Generative AI holds much promise for businesses




The year ahead

The World Ahead KAL

Drawing on 2024

The Economist’s editorial cartoonist Kevin (“KAL”) Kallaugher pictures the year ahead

The World Ahead The World Ahead 2024

Calendar 2024

Our selection of events around the world


Superforecasters

The World Ahead Superforecasters in 2024

What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024

The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year

Britain

The World Ahead Britain votes

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer: who would actually bring change?

Two men who are not natural brawlers will fight it out for power in Britain’s election in 2024

The World Ahead Tories in trouble

Britain’s Conservative Party faces up to its mortality

Expect the five stages of grief


The World Ahead Britain’s economy

The outlook for the British economy is better than expected

But that does not mean it is rosy


The World Ahead Ditching the king

Which Commonwealth realms might ditch King Charles III?

A new wave of republicanism is gathering

The World Ahead The ailing NHS

Britain’s NHS will continue to be a political hot potato in 2024

Perhaps hotter than usual

The World Ahead Labour’s economic plans

Rachel Reeves on Labour’s plans for Britain’s finances

The shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer promises to restore economic stability



Europe

The World Ahead Ukraine fights on

The war in Ukraine may be heading for stalemate

Some big decisions will need to be made

The World Ahead Russia’s perpetual war

Vladimir Putin cannot keep funding his war for ever

But after winning Russia’s presidential election in March, he will try


The World Ahead Trouble in the Caucasus

How the war in Ukraine is changing the Caucasus

Turkey and Azerbaijan hope to benefit from Russia’s betrayal of Armenia


The World Ahead Baltics and Nordics

Ukraine has brought Nordic and Baltic countries together

It turns out the Baltics were right

The World Ahead Politics and Olympics

France will unify for sport but not for politics

The Paris 2024 Olympics will briefly pause the polarising politics

The World Ahead Centrists v populists

Europe’s elections pitch centrists against populists, again

Expect spats over net zero and over who gets the top jobs



United States

The World Ahead Unpopularity contest

An unpopularity contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looms

The coming year is likely to bring even greater malaise among American voters

The World Ahead Who to watch

The people to watch in 2024 ahead of America’s election

Some are well known, some are not


The World Ahead America’s economy

Three economic risks facing America in 2024

The economy has dodged a recession, but it is not out of the woods yet


The World Ahead Stretched superpower

With crises in Ukraine and Israel, can America still defend Taiwan?

American power is being stretched abroad and undermined at home

The World Ahead Free speech online

Can America regulate big tech at all?

State internet-safety laws face First Amendment scrutiny in 2024

The World Ahead Small towns get bigger

Americans are moving to smaller towns in the South

Enthusiasm for small-town living has outlived the pandemic



The Americas

The World Ahead Latin America’s politics

Latin America’s left-right divide may be disrupted in 2024

Politics in the region is becoming more complex

The World Ahead Mexican democracy

Mexico will elect its first female president

The question is how much she will be like her predecessor


The World Ahead Thriving startups

The future is bright for Latin American startups

Companies are doing well around the region’s pain points


The World Ahead Green resources

Latin America could lead the way on green power

A resource blessing, not a curse?


The World Ahead Canadian politics

Justin Trudeau wants a fourth term as Canada’s prime minister

He may find an unlikely ally in Donald Trump


Asia

The World Ahead India’s election

Narendra Modi’s expected re-election will inspire fear and hope

He is long accused of mistreatment of political opponents and religious minorities

The World Ahead Indian technology

India has big plans to export its e-government technology

From biometric IDs to payment systems, it has a lot to offer


The World Ahead Taiwan’s election

China is watching closely who will be Taiwan’s next president

It prefers, as always, the KMT candidate


The World Ahead Asia in 2024

The Central Asian republics are cultivating new alliances

But links to Russia are likely to remain strong

The World Ahead Energy linkages

Indonesia will elect a new president in February

But economic policies may not shift much after Jokowi’s departure



China

The World Ahead An undeclared cold war

China’s leaders will seek to exploit global divisions in 2024

But they will continue to preach harmony

The World Ahead End of the road?

China’s appeal to poor countries is changing

It is less about the money and more about the message


The World Ahead Xi and the yes­-men

Xi Jinping will consolidate his power in the coming year

But who are the runners and riders below him?


The World Ahead China’s economy

China faces a trade-off between confidence and credibility

Setting the official economic-growth target poses a dilemma

The World Ahead Foreign firms’ woes

Life will get even harder for foreign firms in China

It looks like the new, post-covid normal is here to stay

The World Ahead Disaffected youth

The Chinese Communist Party is struggling to inspire the young

Youth unemployment will remain high



Middle East & Africa

The World Ahead Beyond Gaza

A new balance of power will emerge in the Middle East

America will still be an important part of it

The World Ahead Despots v democracy

The Middle East faces a series of sham elections

Real democracy is too dangerous


The World Ahead The Palestinians’ future

The aftermath of the war with Israel will shape Palestinian life

Many eyes will be on the Palestinian Authority


The World Ahead Middle Eastern music

The Middle East’s music business has huge potential

Governments and record labels are paying attention

The World Ahead Iran’s future

In Iran, 2024 is all about the succession

Ayatollah Ali Khaminei, the supreme leader, makes some calculations

The World Ahead Africa’s economies

African countries will scrimp on investment in the coming year

This will drag down future growth



International

The World Ahead How to rig an election

How to rig an election

Rather than crudely stuffing ballot boxes, autocrats will cheat in hundreds of less obvious ways

The World Ahead Global temperatures

Global average temperatures may pass a threshold in 2024

El Niño won’t help


The World Ahead Green metals

Demand for “green” metals will redraw the global mining map

The energy transition will mint new fortunes in surprising places


The World Ahead Expanding BRICS

The BRICS are expanding

They will host their biggest-ever summit in 2024

The World Ahead Deep-sea mining

Deep-sea miners are ready to get down to work

Now they are just awaiting legal authorisation

The World Ahead The new arms race?

Nuclear testing could start a new arms race

This time it would be three sides, not just two



Industries

The World Ahead The World Ahead 2024

Ten business trends for 2024, and forecasts for 15 industries

A global round-up from The Economist Intelligence Unit

Trendlines

The World Ahead Trendlines in 2024

Metrics to keep an eye on in 2024, from solar cells to superhero movies

Some are merely fun—while others are potentially world-changing

Business

The World Ahead Decarbonising industry

Decarbonisation of industrial activities is beginning

Technology is improving, and policy is starting to shift

The World Ahead Energy islands

Europe needs to build energy islands

But what sort should it build?


The World Ahead Companies adopt AI

Generative AI will go mainstream in 2024

Data-savvy firms will benefit first


The World Ahead The next tech platform

The fight to control the headset market will intensify

They are the next big tech platform

The World Ahead US­-China chip wars

Semiconductors will remain central to America’s tech rivalry with China

Expect America to step up global enforcement of its sanctions on chips and chipmaking gear

The World Ahead Chinese EVs pull ahead

EVs are poised to make China the world’s biggest car exporter

Its lead in battery-making is crucial





Finance & economics

The World Ahead Strong labour markets

Rich-world labour markets will remain strong in 2024

Even if there is a recession

The World Ahead Global minimum tax

A global minimum tax on firms is finally taking shape

But another much-trumpeted tax reform looks destined to fall apart


The World Ahead Poor countries’ debt

The world’s most indebted countries face another year in limbo

Geopolitical tensions have frozen the process of debt restructuring


The World Ahead Rollercoaster markets

Investors are daring to hope for some stability in the stockmarket

After three years riding a rollercoaster

The World Ahead Trade and tariffs

An onslaught of protectionism will change global trade

But it will not diminish it

The World Ahead Central-bank digital currencies

The roll-out of central-bank digital currencies will slow in 2024

They create new problems while solving few



Science & technology

The World Ahead What’s next for AI

AI models will become smaller and faster

They will improve in plenty of other ways, too

The World Ahead Fighting obesity

Expect a bumper year for weight-loss drugs

The market for drugs such as Wegovy and Mounjaro could be worth $77bn by 2030


The World Ahead New drugs to watch

New medical treatments will use genetic scissors, and other clever tricks

From sickle-cell disease to glaucoma, these are the drugs to look out for


The World Ahead The year in space

Astronauts are returning to the moon…well, sort of

There are plenty of other launches, missions and rockets to look out for

The World Ahead A solar eclipse

Get ready for the Great North American eclipse

It is one event that will definitely happen in 2024

The World Ahead A global crop pandemic

The next pandemic could hit global crop supplies

As plant diseases spread across continents, greater scrutiny is needed



Culture

The World Ahead AI’s impact on Hollywood

AI will transform every aspect of Hollywood storytelling

But it will also cause more friction

The World Ahead New museums

Museums will multiply in 2024

From Go-Go music, to Shakespeare, to robots in Seoul


The World Ahead Books to watch for

What will be the bestsellers in the coming year?

Books on robots, Russia and romance are likely candidates


The World Ahead Musicals’ moment

A spate of new musicals will cheer the spirits in 2024

There is nothing like a bit of pure escapism

The World Ahead African architecture

A new era for west African architecture

Buildings that bridge tradition and modernity are taking shape

The World Ahead Music in China

Female rock stars are becoming increasingly popular in China

But songs about female empowerment still make the government nervous



Graphic detail for 2024

The World Ahead Graphic detail

2024 is the biggest election year in history

But the quality of democracies varies widely

Obituary

The World Ahead Obituary

Reflections on paperlessness, in the spirit of Ogden Nash

As several airlines prepare to phase out paper boarding passes in 2024, our obituarist laments the decline of paper tickets of all kinds