Can we fix it? No we can’t

THE great British builder may not be getting as much time for his hallowed teabreak these days. The government has announced plans to increase the pace of housebuilding, which has failed to keep up with demand in recent years. Yet there are not many brickies around to do the job. Since the financial crash of 2008, which saw many small building firms go to the wall, the construction workforce has shrunk from 2.5m to 2.2m. This shortage of manpower, combined with a lack of materials, could undermine efforts to build the houses Britain needs. “Either we need more people or we need to construct homes in a different way,” says Mark Farmer of EC Harris, a property consultancy.

To meet current demand, about 250,000 new homes are needed each year. Yet last year only about 150,000 were built. Increasing annual housebuilding even to 230,000 would require an extra 120,000 or so people in the industry, Mr Farmer estimates. Finding those workers is proving tricky. The number of bricklayers and masons working in Britain has fallen from 100,000 to 70,000 since 2008, according to the Office for National Statistics. Trades such as roofing and plastering, as well as professions such as architecture and quantity surveying, are also failing to attract enough recruits.

The Home Builders Federation, which represents the industry, says that such labour shortages have not been seen since 2002. Back then the drought was eventually relieved by immigrant labour after the EU’s eastern enlargement in 2004, which gave Polish plumbers and Estonian electricians the right to work in Britain. Census data show that the proportion of construction workers born outside Britain rose from 5% in 2001 to 11% in 2011. Last year visa restrictions were lifted on Bulgarians and Romanians, topping up the supply of workers. But with official plans to squeeze immigration—and the possibility of Britons voting to leave the EU in a referendum within the next two years—construction firms are anxious to cultivate home-grown talent as well.

The trouble is that young Britons are not that keen on building. The UK Commission for Employment and Skills, an official advisory panel, says that just to fill the boots of construction workers retiring in the next ten years, some 700,000 new recruits are needed. Yet the number of first-year trainees in the industry fell by half between 2005 and 2013, to fewer than 20,000. Construction is not seen by enough young people as a long-term career option; women, especially, are unlikely to consider the building trade.

The recovery under way in the housing market is also placing a strain on the supply of materials. Britain is importing one-fifth of its bricks from continental Europe. The scarcity is contributing to annual inflation in construction costs (including labour, plant and materials) of about 6%. In London, where the housing shortage is most acute, a number of big proposed regeneration schemes, such as Earl’s Court and Old Oak Common, as well as mega-projects like Crossrail and the Thames Tideway Tunnel, will squeeze contractors and their supply chains further. As plans for improved water and energy-distribution infrastructure are finalised, capital investment in utilities will recommence this year, too, adding more pressure.

Perhaps the best way to adapt to the labour shortage is to change the way homes are built, says Adam Challis of JLL, a global property adviser. Alternative methods of construction have always been less popular in Britain than elsewhere, he says, in part because the poorly built “pre-fab” homes of the post-war years gave them a bad reputation. But quality has improved, and using timber frames and pre-cast panels would reduce dependence on scarce, specialist workers. Labour requirements for buildings with timber-frame products are 25% lower than for conventional housing construction.

Planning laws will have to be loosened much more before Britain is able to put up anything like the number of houses it needs. But unless the shortage of builders is resolved, there may not be anyone around to construct them—and certainly no time for a quick cuppa on the job.