The gulf between test results and the real world widens
CARMAKERS have two methods for dealing with the gases that belch from exhaust pipes. One is to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide (NOx) and other nasties by spending heavily to develop cleaner engines. Another is to devise methods to game emissions-testing systems but keep polluting the atmosphere on the road.
Volkswagen and Mitsubishi opted for the second method, using means illegal in some countries. But many other carmarkers bend the rules: after VW’s deception came to light, for instance, independent tests showed that across the board, official NOx figures in Europe were a far cry from expectations. This persistent gap between test results and what can be achieved in practice undercuts limits imposed by governments to curtail greenhouse gases and air pollution. Enforcement regimes are in need of repair.
Mitsubishi, Japan’s sixth-largest carmaker, saw its shares plunge after it admitted on April 20th that it had improperly conducted fuel-economy tests. Its potential punishment in court for 25 years of rule-breaking is, as yet, unclear. The vast complexity of Japan’s emissions regime clouds proceedings.
The scandal at VW centres on its development of software that detected the regular driving pattern of emissions-test cycles and responded by artificially lowering the amount of NOx produced by 11m diesel cars. The German carmaker reached a deal on April 14th in an American court to fix cars, compensate owners and pay fines. The details are not yet public but reportedly VW will buy back around 480,000 cars and give a further $5,000 to each owner. VW also plans to increase the sum it has set aside this year to help meet the mounting costs of the scandal to a whopping €16.2 billion ($18.3 billion).
Europeans, who own 8.5m of the cars affected by VW’s actions, may not be treated as generously. The firm has offered a recall to adjust the dodgy software but is not planning compensation or a buy-back. Despite admissions of guilt in September VW has since said it is considering whether its software is actually illegal in Europe.
The regulations are “fuzzy”, says Nick Molden of Emissions Analytics, a consulting firm. Europe’s system relies on a gentle test cycle that fails to replicate how cars are actually driven on the road. Carmakers are permitted to test specially prepared prototypes. Testing agencies compete for business from carmakers by promising to “optimise” conditions. America’s system, in contrast, is more robust. Carmakers test their own vehicles. The Environmental Protection Agency subsequently checks their figures using randomly selected production cars. If the numbers diverge it has the power to levy eye-wateringly large fines on firms.
Europe’s laxer regime has resulted in a big gap between test results and “real-world” figures. According to the International Council on Clean Transportation, which researches such matters, fuel consumption is on average 40% higher on the road and NOx emissions seven times higher than manufacturers’ data suggest. Germany, alongside Britain and France, tested a variety of diesel models anew after the VW scandal. On April 22nd, it confirmed what others had found: NOx emissions far in excess of test figures.
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Carmakers are abusing another loophole, according to Greg Archer of Transport & Enviroment, a green pressure group. Turning off emissions controls is permitted at low temperatures, to protect engine components. Yet it is also common for this to happen at balmy outside temperatures, in some cases as high as 18°C. Germany’s regulators have asked VW, Daimler and GM to recall 630,000 cars to fix the problem, but acknowledge that the cars comply with regulations.
The search is now on for evidence of further manipulation. French officials raided the offices of Renault in January and on April 21st turned up at PSA, the maker of Peugeots and Citroëns. The next day America’s Department of Justice asked Daimler to investigate the certification process of its diesel cars. Though details have not been made public the investigation may also centre on the system that turns off emissions technology at low temperature. Unlike in Europe, American regulators require explanation of how this type of software operates during testing.
Changes to testing regimes are afoot. Japan is likely to review the way its tests are carried out. Europe’s system is also being readied for an overhaul. Plans are in place to replace its test cycle with a new one that more closely mimics real-world driving and imposes stricter rules over how cars may be prepared. A system for rechecking NOx emissions from production vehicles on the road is under discussion. That should ensure exhausts are cleaner. But the new test will only be harder, not impossible, to game.
This article appeared in the Business section of the print edition under the headline "Exhaustive analysis"
