As fight with Kurds heats up, Turkey's president calls elections

TURKEY entered uncharted political waters on Friday as its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, announced he will call a snap election this autumn—provided that an even more senior authority agrees. “God willing, Turkey will experience repeat elections on November 1st,” Mr Erdogan said. Mr Erdogan's confidence was disappointed in the previous elections on June 7th, when the Islamic-oriented Justice and Development (AK) party that he co-founded was denied the majority it needed to rule alone for a fourth term. The caretaker AK government reluctantly entered coalition talks, first with the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) and then with the right-wing National Action Party (MHP), but on August 18th it said no coalition could be formed. Under the Turkish constitution, the winner of an election has only 45 days to negotiate a coalition. But this is the first time that an election has failed to lead to the formation of a government.

Mr Erdogan is now expected to meet the speaker of parliament after the 45-day limit expires on August 23rd to formally launch the electoral process. Many believe AK was determined from the start to re-run the elections rather than form a coalition. The party owes its loss of a majority to the success the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which won 13% of the vote on June 7th, garnering support from many secular Turks as well as Kurds. One month ago, the Turkish government abruptly put an end to two years of peace negotiations with the Kurds, responding to attacks by the militant Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) with a massive campaign of air-strikes and arrests. Since then, violence and nationalist sentiment have escalated. Mr Erdogan hopes the rising tension will lead Turkish voters to shy away from the HDP and turn to AK. Yet so far, opinion polls show only minor fluctuations since June.

Meanwhile, governing the country will be confusing. Turkey’s constitution requires a power-sharing interim government, with all parties taking part, ahead of an election re-run. But the CHP, the largest opposition party, blames Mr Erdogan for torpedoing coalition negotiations and says it will not take part. The MHP has taken a similar stand. Its leader Devlet Bahceli recently argued that “under today’s conditions and environment in Turkey, holding an election may light the fuse of a civil war.” He called for martial law to be introduced.

This leaves only the HDP as a prospective interim cabinet partner. The HDP's spokesman, Ayhan Bilgen, says his party is willing to shoulder the responsibility in the hope that its participation would “pull Turkey out of the atmosphere of conflict.” But he warned against attempts to pressure voters or undermine HDP politicians. The government does not seem to have heeded the warning; in recent weeks, prosecutors have launched multiple investigations against senior HDP party officials.

If CHP and MHP refuse to take part in an interim government, the constitution offers few pointers on how their cabinet seats should be filled. Ahmet Davutoglu, the prime minister, acknowledges that the process is open to interpretation. Rather conveniently, he wants to simply choose the cabinet ministers himself. In Turkey’s viciously polarised political climate, such impasses make paralysis and further instability all the more likely. President Erdogan says security forces and the electoral board have made the necessary preparations for an election. But holding a vote in the current volatile circumstances circumstances is bound to test Turkey's strained democratic order.