SEVEN weeks after winning an hard-fought victory in Israel’s election, and just hours before a constitutional deadline, Binyamin Netanyahu informed President Reuven Rivlin on May 6th that he had succeeded—just—in forming a new government. It is hardly the coalition of his dreams. He had been negotiating with the right-wing and religious parties to build a solid block of 67 seats in the 120-member Knesset. At the same time he put out feelers to the opposition Labour Party leader, Yitzhak Herzog, to create a broader national-unity government with 70 seats or more. In the event, he has ended up with the slimmest of possible majorities: 61 seats.
On May 4th, Avigdor Lieberman threw a spanner in the works. He announced that, despite reaching a deal that would have allowed him to stay on as foreign minister, his party, Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is Our Home), would not be joining the coalition. Bizarrely, he claimed that the new government, which will be one of the most right-wing in Israel’s history, is “not national” enough because it was not formally committed to building more houses in the Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.
Mr Lieberman’s accusation is surely disingenuous. The Settlement Division, a quasi-governmental agency that carries out most of the building in the lands occupied in 1967, will be controlled by a hard-line settler, the intended Agriculture Minister, Uri Ariel. Mr Netanyahu’s is hardly the government to rein him in. It is more likely that Mr Lieberman’s decision to sit in opposition is a reflection of his deteriorating relationship with the prime minister, once a close ally, and his own waning influence following a measly election showing.
Without Yisrael Beiteinu, the coalition now has a bare majority of one. In the final 48 hours of negotiations, Naftali Bennett, the leader of Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home), the last party to sign an agreement, held the fate of the new Netanyahu government in his hands. Mr Netanyahu was forced to surrender the Justice Ministry, which is now set to be headed by Mr Bennett’s ally, Ayelet Shaked
A fierce critic of the Supreme Court’s powers to strike down legislation, Ms Shaked will spearhead the right wing’s campaign to diminish the court’s role. But any such reform will be a struggle, thanks to the coalition’s thin majority and disagreements between the five parties comprising it. The second-largest party in the new government, Kulanu, opposes the judicial change. But its leader, Moshe Kahlon, is expected to become finance minister, and wants to push through his own ambitious reforms of the banking and housing sectors. So he may be forced to concede on the Supreme Court.
It is hard to see how Mr Netanyahu’s new government plans to counter an expected period of international pressure from America and European Union to restart the diplomatic process with the Palestinian Authority. For now, Mr Netanyahu is not even planning to appoint a new foreign minister, in the hope that Labour will join at a later stage and the job can go to Mr Herzog. Meanwhile, with a coalition resolutely opposed to freezing settlement-building or countenancing the establishment of a Palestinian state, any new peace initiative is a non-starter.
Mr Kahlon has been promised significant powers to reform the Israeli economy. But he has already been limited by exorbitant promises to the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, to restore benefits and roll back other policies designed to push members of their religious communities to join the workforce.
Five months ago Mr Netanyahu fired the ministers of the centrist Yesh Atid and Hatnuah parties, accusing them of trying to lead a “putsch” against him. He called an election even though his government had served barely a third of its term, saying “it cannot govern Israel.” Next week his fourth government will be sworn in. With a tiny majority, and riven with rivalries, few are under any illusion that it will prove more durable than his previous one.
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This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "Wafer thin"
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