Doomsday and the history of nuclear weapons

By M.S. and the Data Team

THIS week the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (BAS) announced that the Doomsday Clock would remain at three minutes to midnight. The clock, a device invented by the BAS, is a reflection of how close they think the world is to a catastrophic disaster, taking into account risks such as climate change and the possible use of nuclear weapons. More controversially, the BAS also chucks in cyber threats and the rising number of terrorist attacks, which although dangerous cannot really be said to pose real risk to the planet. Even at the height of the cold war in 1972, when America and Russia faced each other with nuclear arsenals that dwarf today’s arms control-limited nuclear forces, the clock was only at 12 minutes to midnight. Nor does the BAS (formed in 1945 by scientists who helped develop the first atomic bomb) seem to think that recent diplomatic achievements, such as the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate change commitment, have done anything to push the minute-hand back.

An abiding concern is nuclear weapons. But whilst 2015 saw a slight uptick in the global number of operational nuclear warheads on the previous year (see chart), the reasons behind it are not especially worrying. Mostly, according to Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, it is explained by Russia introducing some new systems (mainly two Borei-class ballistic-missile submarines) before they have retired older ones. However, in order to be compliant with the new START arms control treaty of 2010, they will have to retire those older systems before 2018. Apart from that, three of the smaller nuclear powers, China, India and Pakistan, have all increased their warhead numbers by small amounts—an unwelcome development, but not an overly significant one.