Aliyev’s party

KHADIJA ISMAILOVA, an Azeri journalist investigating corruption among the country’s ruling elite, knew that she was swimming in deep waters. In 2012 Ms Ismailova received a package containing stills from a secretly filmed sex tape of her, and a warning that unless she stopped digging it would be published online. Ms Ismailova ignored the threat, and the video was duly released. She kept on reporting anyway. In December, she was arrested on charges of inciting a fellow journalist, Tural Mustafayev, to attempt suicide. In February more charges were added, including tax evasion and abuse of power. Meanwhile Mr Mustafayev withdrew his complaint, saying that it had been made under “emotional stress”. No trial date has yet been fixed.

Ms Ismailova is not alone. Azerbaijan has convicted or imprisoned at least 33 other activists, journalists and bloggers over the past year on politically motivated charges, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW), a New York-based advocacy group. Ill-treatment of prisoners is common. There is growing concern about Leyla Yunus, a leading human-rights activist, and her husband Arif, a historian. They have been in jail since last summer on charges of treason and tax evasion. Ms Yunus suffers from diabetes and liver trouble. Giorgi Gogia, a veteran HRW researcher, says that the situation “is going from bad to worse.” Mr Gogia tried to visit Azerbaijan in March to attend the trials of two activists. He was booted out without explanation.

The timing of the crackdown is no coincidence. The oil-rich former Soviet republic will be hosting the inaugural European games next month. These will bring together 6,000 athletes from 50 different countries. Human-rights groups are demanding that world leaders boycott the whole affair. Azerbaijan’s authoritarian president, Ilham Aliyev, apparently fears that his critics will seize the occasion to air their gripes. “He locks them up because he gets away with it,” says Arzu Geybullayeva, a prominent Azeri blogger. She may be right. Azerbaijan has used its energy riches to enlist powerful friends in Europe and America. But the south Caucasus state offers more than oil.

Wedged between Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, Iran and the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan is a strategic prize. Determinedly pro-secular, it has allowed the Americans to use its bases to attack Muslim extremists in Afghanistan. This may help to explain why Azerbaijan was allowed to act as chair of the Council of Europe, a Strasbourg-based human rights body, for six months in 2014, even as it jailed dissenters. The dollops of caviar and other perks used to oil Azerbaijan’s lobbying machine don’t hurt.

Mr Aliyev’s bigger headache is the economy. The fall in global oil prices has hurt Azerbaijan’s finances. Energy makes up around 95% of the country’s exports and 40% of its GDP. Inflation is rising and the government’s attempts to prop up the local currency, the manat, have largely failed. Payment of civil servants’ salaries has been delayed. The government blames it all on the European games. “This is causing real anger at the government, something the arrests of the activists never could,” says a Washington-based analyst of Azerbaijan, who blogs under the name North Caucasus Caucus.

Another worry is tensions with neighbouring Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. The mainly Armenian-populated enclave in Azerbaijan fell under Armenia’s control after a nasty three-year war that broke out in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. Clashes between Azeri and Armenian troops along the border have become worryingly frequent. Mr Aliyev uses Karabakh to drum up nationalist sentiment and divert attention away from corruption at home.

Mr Aliyev may be overplaying his hand. “When the violence [with Armenia] started in August and all the bodies started coming home, people were calling for blood,” the Washington-based analyst recalls. “The government actually had to tamp down popular anger to stop matters from getting out of control.”