The economic consequences

THE impact of leaving the European Union on Britain’s economy may be the most heated issue of all as the referendum on June 23rd approaches. Many of those who are unsure how to vote say they will decide on the basis of whether Brexit is likely to make them better or worse off. The arguments are hard to assess. Andrew Tyrie, the Tory MP who chairs the Commons Treasury select committee, which is inquiring into the costs and benefits of EU membership, says both sides in the debate “are prepared to set aside all qualifications and restraints in the wilder claims they make.” He hopes his committee can do better, though it too is bitterly divided.

Mr Tyrie notes that, when it comes to Brexit, “the central problem is that there is no counterfactual.” In October, for instance, a Bank of England study concluded that EU membership had boosted the British economy by making it more dynamic. That is hard to square with Brexiteers’ claim that membership has been damaging. Yet the cause of the new dynamism could be something unrelated: perhaps, as Eurosceptics say, the Thatcherite reforms of the 1980s, lower taxes or less red tape.