Days after the arrest of Europe’s most-wanted terrorist, Islamic State has struck back

AFTER the arrest in Brussels last week of Salah Abdeslam, a chief suspect in the attacks in Paris that killed 130 people on November 13th, there was every reason to fear other Islamist terrorists might strike again quickly. Belgium’s interior minister, Jan Jambon, gave warning on March 21st that stopping one terrorist cell “can push others into action”.

An attack came the next day. At 8am this morning at least one suicide bomber, who reportedly shouted in Arabic and fired shots before setting off an explosive device, struck the crowded departures hall at Brussels Zaventem airport. A second explosion was reported moments later, apparently as panicking crowds ran from the scene of the first explosion. By the afternoon the death toll at the airport had reached at least 10.

Roughly an hour later at least one other attacker detonated a bomb on a train carriage inside the Maelbeek metro station, close to the head offices of several European institutions. The Belgian authorities, who had closed the metro for several days following the Paris attacks in November, apparently failed to shut down public transport quickly after the airport bombings. Reports suggest at least 20 people have died in the underground.

Terrorists intent on striking civilians to induce fear and spread propaganda for Islamic State (IS) have no lack of soft targets in cities such as Brussels. As airlines and airports improve security measures to prevent attacks on planes, for example, they create queues and crowded areas at the entrances to airports or at airline check-in desks. Similarly, it is almost impossible to install sufficiently effective security measures to make metros and buses secure against bombers. In some cities, such as Delhi, airport-style scanners are used at entrances to metro stations. Yet these simply create long queues and crowds of delayed passengers. In Europe, despite the frequent terrorist attacks over the past year—including the attacks in Paris on the Charlie Hebdo cartoonists and journalists in January last year, and on cafés and a concert hall in November—it appears security most depends on those in authority gathering good intelligence to foil attacks before they are launched.

A key factor is gaining the trust of local communities. Where they have efficient and trusting relations with police, intelligence can be strikingly effective at preventing attacks. In Britain, for example, officials suggest that many would-be terrorist incidents have been foiled in the past couple of years because of information passed from minority communities to officials. The problem in Belgium appears to be that the police and other authorities are simply unable to gather enough information. This is especially true in areas of Brussels such as Molenbeek which are heavily populated by migrants from north Africa and the Middle East.

The fact that Salah Abdeslam could remain on the run, hidden in central Brussels, from November until March, suggests that families, friends and neighbours served as a support network for him, and failed to tip off police. Matters are not helped by a political culture that is suspicious of intelligence and security work, and political fragmentation that afflicts all aspects of the Belgian government.

Disruption to travel in Europe, by air, train and more, is a certainty, and is likely to continue for some days. Police and others will need to prepare against more possible attacks—co-ordinated or opportunist, to build on the shock now felt in Europe—and see whether any conspirators choose this moment to flee across borders. But a certain weary regularity is also becoming apparent. Shock is followed by public dismay, defiance and resignation. Terror alerts are raised and daily routines are disrupted, as analysts point out that living with the threat of further assaults is inevitable.

Large numbers of young men have gone from Europe to fight in Syria with IS and other militant groups. Some of them have returned with the aim of carrying out attacks in Europe, like those seen in Brussels and Paris. The terrorists’ goals were threefold. First was the propaganda coup of dominating the world’s headlines for several days, distracting from news of the setback of the arrest of Salah Abdeslam. Second, if the attacks were already being planned, the terrorists might have feared that Abdeslam was spilling information under interrogation from Belgian authorities and decided to act quickly. Last, they aim to inspire other young Europeans to support jihadists. Though IS appears to be weakening in Syria and Iraq, its ideas continue to inspire young men to strike fear at the heart of Europe.

1.30pm London: This piece has been updated to reflect the revised death toll

4.45pm London: The headline and article have been updated to reflect Islamic State taking credit for the attacks

6.50pm London: This piece has again been updated to reflect the revised death toll