Mr Trump tastes defeat in Iowa, Mrs Clinton avoids disaster
The results offered one important dose of comfort for a political and business elite that has felt battered
By Lexington | DES MOINES and GRINNELL
THE Iowa caucuses—the first electoral contest of the 2016 presidential cycle—saw the race’s two loudest populists suffer setbacks. Donald Trump was pushed into second place in the Republican field, leaving him standing on a stage in a hotel ballroom in Des Moines, flanked by his family like a conventional politician, ploughing his way through a flat-sounding speech of congratulations to the victor, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. On the left, Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist from Vermont, had to settle for a tie with the Democratic front-runner, Hillary Clinton, after some of his ardent young supporters failed to turn out in quite the numbers he had hoped.
Yet even if individual populists suffered disappointments, the same Iowa caucuses showed that this election continues to be powered by forces of populist anger and contempt for those with governing experience. Mr Cruz is hardly a mainstream moderate. The first-term senator won in Iowa by campaigning among evangelical Christians like a fire-and-brimstone preacher, by denouncing Republican Party leaders as traitors to the conservative cause and by adopting some of Mr Trump’s most harshly nativist positions, notably finding need to build a wall on the southern border with Mexico and prioritising the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants now in America.
Nor is Mr Trump exactly down and out. He has been brought closer to earth after seeming to defy the rules of political gravity for months. His demagoguery and fame-fuelled candidacy helped to bring many new voters to the Iowa caucuses, fuelling higher-than-usual Republican turnout. But Mr Trump did not command the loyalty of all of those new caucus-goers. Still the businessman heads into the next contest in New Hampshire holding double-digit leads in opinion polls—at least for now. New Hampshire holds Democratic and Republican presidential primary contests on February 9th, and as a relatively secular, mind-your-own-business New England state, is a better fit for the much-married Mr Trump than Iowa, with its large numbers of conservative Christians.
As for Mr Sanders, he was forced to a draw in the end by Mrs Clinton’s impressive and well-funded campaign machine, which turned out her core supporters—notably those older than 45, and Baby Boomer women—in numbers large enough to overcome her biggest problem: that her candidacy does not leave many Democrats very excited. But just a few months ago Mr Sanders barely registered in opinion polls as a threat against Mrs Clinton. She was a former first lady, senator and secretary of state, whose years in office and fund-raising prowess kept all potential big-name challengers from the field. Mr Sanders is a snowy-haired, permanently rumpled 70-something leftist scold, running on a platform of indignation against the power of Wall Street, big companies and the rich, and promising higher taxes on even middle-class Americans to pay for free college tuition and European-style state-run health care.
Iowa, whose Democratic activists are whiter and more radical than party members in many other states, handed Mrs Clinton a wounding defeat in the presidential nominating contest of 2008, turning instead to Barack Obama: a blow from which her campaign of eight years ago never fully recovered. At her nearly misnamed Iowa Victory Party in Des Moines on Monday night, Mrs Clinton was unable to lay that ghost wholly to rest. Joined by an almost frail-looking Bill Clinton, and their daughter Chelsea, Mrs Clinton said only that she was “breathing a big sigh of relief” and thanked Iowans before heading for the airport and a chartered flight to New Hampshire.
Mrs Clinton cast the result of the caucus as a win for pragmatism and electability, describing herself as a “progressive who gets things done.” A few hours earlier at caucus sites across Iowa, Democrats had to assemble in physical groups representing different candidates, with Clinton folk in one corner and Sanders backers in another, then try to woo friends and neighbours who were still undecided or who backed an also-ran candidate, the former governor of Maryland, Martin O’Malley (who later on Monday night ended his campaign). At a caucus site in the college town of Grinnell, even confirmed Clinton supporters admitted that the hardest task was to convince fellow-Iowans that they could trust her, after she has spent years fending off allegations of dishonesty. She faces a tough contest in New Hampshire, where Mr Sanders, as a Vermonter, is a local hero.
Iowa offered one important dose of comfort for a political and business elite that has felt battered and humiliated in recent months. The Republican contest saw a late surge of support for another first-term senator, Marco Rubio of Florida, who came third and almost caught up with Mr Trump after doing well with Iowans who decided how to vote at the last minute. Though third place may sound underwhelming, it is possible that Mr Rubio will look back at Iowa as the moment that he broke away from a crowded pack of pro-business, big-tent Republicans and enshrined himself as the champion of the party establishment.
By any reasonable standards, Mr Rubio is very conservative indeed. The son of Cuban migrants, he long ago disavowed his earlier support for immigration reforms that would offer a swift path out of the shadows for millions of mostly-Hispanic immigrants without legal status. But in what sounded almost like a victory speech in Iowa on Monday night, Mr Rubio promised to “grow” the Republican Party and reach out to low-income and other voters who have traditionally viewed conservative policies with suspicion. That aligns him with such competitors as Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida, or the sitting governor of Ohio, John Kasich, who have both called for reaching out beyond the hard right, where Mr Cruz puts his energies. If Mr Rubio can cement his status as the establishment front-runner, a torrent of almost unlimited money will flow his way, as donors unite around someone who might stop both Mr Trump and Mr Cruz, who are seen by many party grandees as liabilities in a general election.
In an instant tribute to the threat that Mr Rubio is seen as posing to Mrs Clinton, when the 44-year-old Republican appeared on television screens at Mrs Clinton’s caucus-night party the crowd of Democrats listened to his speech in near-silence, booing occasionally but not jeering him. In contrast the Clinton crowd mocked Mr Trump when the billionaire appeared on the same giant screens.
Early states do not anoint winners—indeed Iowa has a poor track-record of picking eventual Republican nominees. But they do impose a brutal discipline on the field, forcing the weakest candidates from the race and exposing the flaws in front-runners. Iowa has already shaken up the 2016 contest. On to New Hampshire, and a contest that will end several more candidacies.
