The Economist explains

How Leicester City staged the greatest upset in sporting history

By J.T.

ANYONE who watches sport for long enough will see his share of upsets. Boxing aficionados remember Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson at odds of 42 to 1—and occasionally an underdog will keep going for an entire tournament. Greece’s football side were 150 to 1 to win the 2004 European Championship, whereas the Minnesota Twins were 500 to 1 to win baseball’s 1987 World Series. But nothing could have prepared football fans for Leicester City’s remarkable run in the 2015-16 English Premier League. The Foxes were 5,000 to 1 to win the title on the season’s opening day. And yet, after more than three bewildering months in first place, leaving even their staunchest fans rubbing their eyes, the Foxes clinched the title after Tottenham Hotspur failed to beat Chelsea on May 2nd. How did they do it?

The Foxes were promoted to the Premier League last season. They played woefully, spending four consecutive months in last place, only to win seven of their last nine matches to escape relegation with a game to spare. This season, bookmakers gave Leicester a smaller chance of finishing top than of Jeremy Corbyn becoming the next James Bond (1,000 to 1). Only four clubs have won the league title in the past 20 years, each with enormous financial clout; the top four places have been traded between the same six teams in the past 10 seasons. Nobody foresaw Leicester’s rise and everybody predicted their demise even as they kept winning throughout the season (much like Donald Trump’s run for the Republican nomination). Nonetheless, hindsight offers three main reasons for the Foxes’ remarkable ascendency.

The first is tactical guile. As The Economistsuggested in December, with analysis provided by Dan Altman of North Yard Analytics and data from Opta, Leicester are toothless when building slow attacks—but ruthless on swift counter-attacks (see chart). Leicester’s staff identified that players such as Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and Danny Drinkwater—all unremarkable in 2014-15—were suited to such guerrilla tactics. They signed midfielder N’Golo Kanté to improve their countering efficiency: he has executed more interceptions and tackles than anyone else in the Premier League this season. Claudio Ranieri, Leicester’s manager, has instructed his defenders to sit deep, cede possession—only two teams have seen less of the ball—and then pounce. A second factor is squad stability. Only 18 Leicester players have started a league game (a league low) and eight have started at least 30 times (a league high). The team remained almost injury-free and rested while the bigger teams toiled in European competition. These other contenders have stumbled—a third cause of Leicester’s rise. Chelsea, last season’s runaway champions, had a disastrous campaign; Manchester United and Liverpool are in transition; Arsenal and Manchester City have lacked consistency. Only Tottenham threatened until the end, though they too have now fallen behind.

INTERACTIVE: Flying foxes - footballing pay and performance

This lack of challengers should not detract from Leicester’s achievement: there has never been a more improbable victory in any sport. Even fans of vanquished rivals have savoured it. A Hollywood scriptwriter is planning to turn the Foxes' tale into a film, centred around Mr Vardy's journey from a semi-professional player to an England international striker. Leicester supporters can also look forward to watching Gary Lineker, a celebrated former player, present Match Of The Day, a BBC football-highlights programme, in his underpants, as he promised to do if they finished as champions. Next season, Leicester may be drawn against European giants such as Barcelona, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich when they take part in the Champions League for the first time. And the bookies who wrote them off now give them a 20 to 1 chance of winning back-to-back league titles. It's unlikely—but stranger things have happened.

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