IN SUGAMO, a district of Tokyo, the river of human traffic turns greyer and slower as it files past shops selling thermal underwear and orthopaedic socks. Pavements have been modified to accommodate wheelchairs. Hand-written signs replace neon. The main street hosts ten chemists, two funeral arrangers and a karaoke bar where the song list stops in the 1970s.
By 2060 Japan’s population is projected to fall from 127m to about 87m, of which almost 40% will be 65 or older (see chart). Last year the government created a new cabinet position for “overcoming population decline and revitalising local economies”. It is now mulling a proposal aimed at repopulating rural areas and cutting the cost of looking after grandma: persuading old people in the capital to move to the countryside.
Over the next decade, the population of over-75s in greater Tokyo will grow by 1.75m, says the Japan Policy Council, a think-tank. Looking after 5.7m very old people will overwhelm already stretched services, it warns; well over 100,000 could be left without beds in care homes. Encouraging them to leave would pep up rural economies, suggests Yoshihide Suga, the chief cabinet secretary. The idea has raised eyebrows. Shigeru Ishiba, the minister in charge of regional revitalisation, had to deny this month that the government was bringing back ubasute, the mythical ancient custom of dumping the elderly on mountains to die. “Nobody is talking about forcing people to move,” he insisted.
Yet mass migration of the elderly is not as implausible as it sounds, says Hideki Koizumi of the University of Tokyo. Population decline threatens hundreds of Japanese villages with extinction. Meanwhile, a small army of care workers would be needed to look after all the old people expected to live in Tokyo. If these extra workers were to move in from the countryside, the capital would get even more crowded and rural decline would accelerate. The solution: build rest homes in the boondocks and fill them with aged urbanites.
The think-tank has identified 41 regional areas that could take the pressure off Tokyo. Several are considering the proposal. Kitakyushu city, in the south-west, says it has just one concern: the government has yet to present anything like a concrete plan for how to pay for it all. The central government will need to offer heavy subsidies for housing, nursing and so on, say experts, and it can ill afford to. Such details are still being worked out, admits Keisuke Takayama, a spokesman for the council.
There is another problem: old people may not want to move. Most prefer to live in places they know, surrounded by their families, says Mr Koizumi.
Florian Coulmas, a German scholar, notes that Tokyo is at the vanguard of demographic change. Its wealth and excellent health care have created a “catastrophic success”: the world’s longest life expectancy. Other countries will one day face similar challenges (some already are), and perhaps consider equally desperate solutions.
This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the headline "Out to pasture"
