The prime minister plays the part of triumphant Tory. But he faces problems inside his party, especially over Europe
|MANCHESTER
DAVID CAMERON deserved his ovations during his speech to the Conservative Party conference on October 7th. This was the first conference since he unexpectedly won an outright majority in May’s election. The economy is growing at the fastest rate in the G7 group of rich countries. And the Labour opposition has lurched to the extremes by choosing as its leader the far-left Jeremy Corbyn, whom many in his own party see as unelectable, while the Liberal Democrats have sunk into insignificance.
No wonder Mr Cameron looked happy as he delivered a speech that was, for a Tory conference, remarkably centrist, full of concern to reduce inequality and remedy social disadvantage. Yet beyond the hall, Mr Cameron has party-management problems, aggravated because he faces a weak opposition with a parliamentary majority of just 12 seats, a situation that will embolden Tory rebels.
Among the tasks for him and his chancellor, George Osborne, will be deciding how far to ease unpopular plans to reduce tax credits for the working poor. In his speech on October 5th, Mr Osborne also set out ambitious plans to devolve power to local councils and upgrade the country’s infrastructure. Mr Cameron reaffirmed the Tory commitment to homeownership, promising to scrap planning restrictions to build more affordable houses. Yet opposition persists in Tory heartlands to housebuilding on greenfield sites, as well as to such projects as the HS2 high-speed rail line and a new airport runway.
The most serious troubles for Mr Cameron will come over Europe, one of the two big subtexts to the conference. The EU referendum will be the biggest single event of this parliament. Mr Cameron remained coy about what he wanted from his renegotiation of the terms of Britain’s EU membership, and insisted all options were open, including the possibility of campaigning to leave. In his speech he passed briskly over the topic, making no reference to the referendum, but declaring that he had “no romantic attachment to the European Union and its institutions”.
Shake it all about
In reality the Out and the In campaigns are preparing for blast-off. Two heavyweight Tory former chancellors, Nigel Lawson and Norman Lamont, are joining Conservatives for Britain, a parliamentary group all but committed to campaigning for withdrawal. The In campaign will soon trumpet its own launch. The battle could quickly become bloody. The Tories have repeatedly split over Europe during the past three decades. Steve Baker, the Eurosceptic co-chairman of Conservatives for Britain, claims that his group includes 115 MPs, over one-third of the parliamentary party. He insists that “there is a good chance that a majority of Tory MPs will campaign to leave.” Open Europe, a Eurosceptic think-tank, concludes that 69 Conservative MPs are clearly for Out and 58 for In, leaving 203 swing voters.
Yet there was no missing the Eurosceptic mood among the grassroots. Many delegates pointed to Britain’s better economic performance than the euro zone, and to the drawbacks of being “shackled to a corpse”, as one put it. And plenty drew a link between the EU and excessive immigration. In her belligerently right-wing speech, Theresa May, the home secretary, argued that “the rules have to change” on migration from the rest of the EU. Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, trumped Ms May in a more amusing address, but he too insisted that it was for Britain and its parliament, not Jean-Claude Juncker (president of the European Commission), to decide if too many people were coming in.
As immigration fears rise up the agenda, the polls have shifted from a large to a narrow In majority, or even to a majority for Out. The expectation before the party conference was that the referendum would be held before the next conference in October 2016. But the date could slip if the polls are unfavourable, the negotiations prove trickier than expected or Europe’s migration crisis continues.
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It is hard to see Mr Cameron campaigning for anything other than to stay in. Most businesses and the City of London want to remain. Mr Cameron knows that the uncertainties from an Out vote would deter foreign investment. And it would also surely lead the Scottish National Party (SNP) to demand and probably win a second referendum on independence. A vote to leave the EU could thus be a precursor to the break-up of the United Kingdom itself.
The EU referendum will also be crucial for the conference’s second big subtext: the party leadership. Mr Cameron confirmed that he was not going to fight the next election, in 2020, as leader. That fuelled speculation over his successor and jockeying among the candidates. Mr Osborne remains the favourite but, as Mr Cameron was careful to point out, favourites often stumble. Mr Osborne’s chances will depend on the success of the economy, but he, too, will want the referendum to be in favour of staying in.
Were the Outs to win, Mr Cameron would surely have to resign (as Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, did after the 2014 Scottish referendum). The leadership could then go to a more Eurosceptic candidate such as the business secretary, Sajid Javid, or the justice secretary, Michael Gove. Ms May and Mr Johnson openly touted their leadership (and Eurosceptic) credentials this week—though only Mr Johnson won a standing ovation following a mention in Mr Cameron’s speech. The sad irony for Mr Cameron is that just at his greatest moment of triumph the Conservatives should stop listening to him and instead take note of those who would replace him.
This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline "Unchallenged yet unstable"
