Oil exporters, Middle East and N. Africa

Fiscal deficits are at record highs for oil exporters in the Middle East and north Africa, thanks to a halving of the oil price since 2014 to around $50 a barrel. The IMF estimates that oil-export revenues will be $360 billion lower this year than if prices had remained at 2014 levels. Governments are already adjusting to the new price, cutting spending and running down foreign-exchange reserves—though this will prove unsustainable if, as looks likely, the oil price stays low. More extensive reforms are needed, including promoting a more diversified private sector. This year the region’s economy is forecast to expand by 2.5%. Growth in its oil-exporting countries is expected to be lower, at 1.8%.