Letters to the editor

Science v politics

Your perceptive Free exchange on the ideological divisions in economics (January 23rd) put its finger on key factors in the unsettled status of economics today. It is hard to think of a Nobel prize in natural sciences being shared between two recipients of opposing views, as has often been the case in economics. Nor does it boost the credibility of the Nobel prize in economics if two joint econometric recipients subsequently precipitate the Long Term Capital Management collapse and its derivative consequences based on their model.

Economists are indeed fortunate to have avoided the fate that befell three Italian seismologists a few years ago, when they were jailed for having failed to forecast an earthquake in their region!

There were acrimonious debates following the financial crisis of 2008: one plausible explanation for economists’ misreading was that, given the growing dominance of mathematics in economics, it became difficult to detect economic fallacies. Another is that the traditional division between positive and normative economics has been allowed to deteriorate to the point at which ideological bias has become more salient, raising the risk of error.

John Maynard Keynes still best describes the challenge facing the discipline today: “Economics is the science of thinking in terms of models joined to the art of choosing models which are relevant to the contemporary world.”

RAYMOND PARSONS
North West University
Mahikeng, South Africa

It was comforting to see your column addressing the ideological dimensions of a profession that too often takes its own “scientific” aspirations too seriously. As the story indicates, economics lies somewhere between science and politics—victim to the same shifts in language and framework that Thomas Kuhn identified, as well as to the whims and agendas of political ideology.

Economics is both a policy tool and a political weapon. Its reach is too central to political visions, and its hypotheses are too dependent on the incalculable crooked timber of humanity for it ever to be a “hard” science. But we can at least be more honest about its theoretical foundations. A “reputation for impartiality” could actually aggravate the controversy, obscuring and masking economists’ biases. A thorough and transparent solution would look more interdisciplinary: presenting empirical findings alongside the economist’s larger policy goals and ideas of a just polity.

CONNOR STRANGLER
Kansas City, Missouri

You reminded me of one my father’s favourite quotes: “If all the nation’s economists were laid end to end, they would point in all different directions.” He also often said: “The devil can cite scripture to his purpose.” For economists it is statistics they cite.

VIC ARNOLD
Westerly, Rhode Island

Because because because…

Lexington missed the opportunity to mention Henry Littlefield’s popular thesis that L. Frank Baum’s “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz”, was inspired by the 1896 Bryan v McKinley electoral face-off (January 23rd). Dorothy, or Everyman, wearing silver shoes—ruby in the 1939 film version—(Bryan’s pro-silver stance) travels the yellow brick road (the gold standard), witnesses the oppressed munchkins (citizens), and discovers that the supposedly omnipotent Wizard (a president like McKinley) is nothing more than a fancy façade. Lest the author’s leanings were in doubt, his main character is aided by the Cowardly Lion (Bryan) and has to evade the Wicked Witch of the East (eastern industrialists).

The way the current campaign is going we voters mostly still hope that a Sanders v Trump contest is just a figment of our imagination.

YACOV ARNOPOLIN
New York

The sex discrepancy

The gender imbalance among asylum-seekers and potential migrants to Sweden is unusual in Europe, but is far from extraordinary by international comparison (“Oh, boy”, January 16th). Although in the EU, there are 1.06 men for every woman, in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates men outnumber women by two to three times, largely because of immigration (and the heavy reliance of these countries on migrant labour).

The solution to Sweden’s predicament may be closer to home: Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, with 0.85-0.86 man for every woman, have the lowest male/female ratios in Europe. The citizens of each of these countries would have good reasons to seek better and safer livelihoods abroad.

Is there a case for a targeted refugee-recruitment policy?

JAN FIDRMUC
Department of Economics and Finance
Brunel University
Uxbridge, Hillingdon

Shine bright like a diamond

* In your article about Botswana’s decline in diamond revenues you neglected to mention that it has had a textbook approach to managing capital inflows from its diamond industry for more than two decades (“Losing it sparkle”, January 16th). It has maintained a steady fiscal strategy and invested the peaks in diamond revenues offshore to prevent “Dutch disease”. Botswana has accumulated substantial reserves which has provided it a significant cushion to deal with revenue shortfalls arising from the current decline in diamond exports.

The prudent folks at the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Botswana will probably encourage the government to spend on infrastructure. Its tourism sector—in spite of being, as you called it, a low paid service sector—has tremendous potential for the long run. The Kalahari desert and the Okavango Delta are unique natural resources on which it can rely for future employment by extracting rents from such uniqueness. The shortfall in diamond revenues may be a blessing in disguise and one for which Botswana is very well-prepared.

DAVID FRANKLIN
Sigma One Corporation
Charlotte, North Carolina

Bad examples

* You stated that Venezuela has put in charge of its economy a left wing sociologist who does not think that printing money causes inflation ("Heading for a crash", January 23rd). Why should he? Over the past 7 years, America and Europe have printed almost three trillion dollars and inflation is nowhere in sight.

DAN KRAVITZ
Harpswell, Maine

A bicycle built for one

I read with interest your article about divorce in China becoming increasingly in vogue, with the corresponding chart showing its incidence per thousand individuals, which also highlighted the decreasing divorce rates in America and Britain (“Divorce: a love story”, January 23rd). Surely a more compelling graph would show the rate per thousand people who are married? Having read your recent analysis on the decline of marriage as an institution, it is possible that Western couples loathe their partners just as much as do the Chinese but simply don’t need to fill out the analogous paperwork to remedy the situation.

MATTHEW McBRYAN
London

Crude calculations

As your excellent overview on oil states, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran makes it seem unlikely that they and OPEC can agree on production cuts needed to rebalance supply and demand and raise oil prices (“Who’s afraid of cheap oil?”, January 23rd). As an old Texan, I suggest restoring the past pro-ration action of the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC) whose main function from the 1930s until the 1960s was to keep production constrained in Texas so that American and world oil markets were in balance and price stability was achieved.

Texas currently produces about 3.5m barrels per day. If the TRC were to force Texas producers collectively to cut this in half (as they did in the 1950s), this would just balance world markets. The net result could double the total revenue of Texas oil companies, mineral-right owners and the state’s treasury—plus better employment for the strippers you mentioned—all because the world oil price might rise from $30 back to $120.

PHILLIP HAWLEY
La Jolla, California

Rather you than me

I was glad to see that Parliament refused to ban Donald Trump from Britain (“Petition against Trump”, January 23rd). It leaves open the possibility he might end up over there with you instead of over here with us.

STUART BEAL
Annandale, Virginia

* Letters appear online only