Wasting energy

EGYPT’S “long dream” is coming true, says Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, the president. Not the dream of a capable government or good public services—but the one in which the nuclear-energy programme started in 1954 finally produces a watt of usable power. The government signed a deal with Russia on November 19th to build its first nuclear plant in Dabaa, on the northern coast.

Nuclear power has gone out of fashion in much of the world. The share of electricity from nuclear reactors has fallen to 10.8%, from a peak of 17.6% in 1996. But China, Russia and India are all expanding their nuclear programmes. And several countries in the Middle East are pursuing nuclear power, creating what some have unfortunately called a “boom” in the region.

Some fear where this may lead—a nuclear-arms race pitting Sunni states against Shia Iran in pursuit of the bomb. The nuclear deal between Iran and the West has somewhat allayed those worries. Nuclear fuel in the region is mostly controlled by international suppliers. Moreover, there are legitimate reasons for the countries of the Middle East to seek alternative power sources. Demand for electricity is rising, along with pressure to lower carbon emissions; nuclear plants tick both boxes. Diversification away from fossil fuels must come sooner or later, say experts.

Short of oil and gas of their own, Egypt and Jordan want nuclear power to shore up the security of their energy supplies. They face big obstacles. The site chosen by Jordan for two planned reactors, also to be built by Russia, lacks water (necessary for cooling) and local tribesmen object to it. Previous plans in Egypt have come to naught because of political upheaval and safety fears. Financing is also a challenge for these cash-strapped countries, though Egypt says it will pay for its deal with the savings from cheaper electricity.

The nuclear plans of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are more plausible. Both countries hope to free up oil and natural gas, now used to generate electricity, for export. To that end, Saudi Arabia has reached agreements with five countries, including Russia, to build 16 reactors by 2032. The UAE is already working with its partner South Korea on four planned reactors, which should begin supplying power in 2017. When the project is completed three years later, a quarter of the country’s electricity needs are expected to be met by nuclear energy.

The projects in Saudi Arabia, which burns oil it could more efficiently sell abroad, and in the UAE, which got a bargain on its reactors, make some economic sense. But most of the reactors planned for the region would replace gas-fired plants, which are cheaper. Ali Ahmad and M.V. Ramana of Princeton University think a country like Saudi Arabia would benefit from nuclear power only if it could charge potential customers abroad several times the going price for its gas (otherwise, it is cheaper to burn it at home and forgo reactors). Importers, for their part, should stick with gas-fired plants so long as the gas price does not rise dramatically.

Over the long term, nuclear power could make sense as part of a low-carbon energy mix. But it is odd that Arab states neglect the most abundant clean energy source in the region—the blazing sun. By one estimate, solar power could provide Iran with 13 times its total energy needs—and decrease its dependence on Russia, which has withheld nuclear fuel in the past. The tumbling price of photovoltaic panels makes solar more attractive: worldwide, more money was invested in it last year than in nuclear power.

Some Arab states are thinking this way. Morocco, which imports electricity from Spain, is building one of the largest solar plants in the world for less than the price of Jordan’s two nuclear reactors. It hopes to get 42% of its electricity from renewables by 2020—and eventually to export power to Europe. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also splashed out on large projects. Yet analysts say the Middle East, with its vast deserts, could be doing much more.

Less glamorous options also exist for countries looking to improve their power supplies. Fixing decrepit transmission lines in Iran would save more electricity than is produced by the country’s single nuclear-energy plant. But there is more prestige attached to nuclear power, which is seen as a totem of technological progress—and which, of course, also allows for the development of skills that could one day be turned to bomb-making.