Their eyes on Albion

YOU do not have to be British to take a view on Britain’s place in Europe. Almost every global economic institution has predicted damage if Britain leaves the European Union. Barack Obama pooh-poohed Brexiteers’ hopes of striking a quick bilateral trade deal with America, deflating those who claim exporters would flourish outside the EU. Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan Chase, a big American bank, has called Brexit a “terrible deal for the British economy”. Those with European accents are no more impressed. Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, has warned Britons that trading with the EU itself might prove hard from outside the fold. On May 31st Europe’s biggest businesses chimed in: leaders of 51 large firms—claiming collectively to have created jobs for some 7m people—said a split would diminish both Britain and Europe as a whole.

These big firms, convened as a “European Round Table of Industrialists”, are led by Benoît Potier, a knight of the French Legion of Honour and the boss of Air Liquide, an industrial giant. Lectures from a titled Frenchman who knows about gases are unlikely to win over wavering voters in the referendum on June 23rd. Those tempted by Brexit are swayed by emotions: fears of foreigners; romantic ideas of sovereignty; Trumpian calls to reverse globalisation. Rational comments from moderate business folk, let alone French ones, pluck few heartstrings.

Nor is it clear that this group of bosses speaks for everyone on the continent. Schumpeter has spent the past six months asking owners, CEOs, bankers and others in European business what they make of Brexit. They fall into three groups. One lot, a minority, assumes it is not—and never was—a serious prospect, despite some polls in Britain now suggesting the Leave camp is ahead. A phlegmatic Swedish banker, paid to assess political risk and how currencies might move, says he and colleagues rate the chance of rupture at almost zero. Consumer-research and polling companies across Europe recently concluded that few of the businesses they work for expect any change.

Those who rely on British custom—French property agents selling holiday homes, for example—count Brexit as only one worry of many, along with falling bank bonuses in London, strikes, floods and terrorism. “Spaniards are more worried about the Euro 2016 soccer tournament,” says José Maria de Areilza, a professor at ESADE, a business school in Barcelona.

A second and larger camp sees Britain’s departure as realistic and a serious threat, for a variety of reasons. Jacob and Marcus Wallenberg, two Swedish industrialists, voiced their fears a year ago that without London as a counterweight to Paris and Berlin the EU would gradually become unfriendlier to business. Others worry about the direct impact on investments in Britain. Both BMW and Nissan have said Brexit would hurt their operations in the country. A representative of one big multinational firm says it has been weighing up contingencies for months, as 80% of production at its British car plants goes to the EU. Given thin profit margins and the risk of tariffs, currency swings or other barriers to trade, it would shift new investment to the continent.

The first secession since Greenland quit the European Economic Community in 1985 might do even broader damage, by some reckonings. The Paris-based boss of a big car-parts supplier says the main risk is the triggering of wider instability, the “unravelling” of continental institutions and talk of exit by others. Confindustria, Italy’s bosses’ association, says that it does not know of a single CEO in favour of Brexit but that some fret about an “avalanche effect” of turbulence in capital markets and uncertainty in trade negotiations that could cost businesses dearly.

There is a third group, however. This camp, the least outspoken, is contrarian. Some spy short-term opportunities: a few hedge funds are commissioning private exit polls on the day of the referendum in order to make bets in the currency markets. But others think that Brexit will yield bigger, long-term payoffs.

Many in this third group serve the finance industry. Brexit would weaken London, as jobs and business drift to Paris or Frankfurt. HSBC has said it might shift 1,000 investment bankers from London to Paris, if Britain goes it alone. JPMorgan Chase reckons 4,000 staff might be moved to the continent. Property will be needed and IT systems procured from local firms. French lawyers and accountants might replace British ones. And as bankers arrive everyone from estate agents with palatial homes on their books to bar owners can expect a boost to their business.

Other businesses also see advantages from Brexit. Some firms in Switzerland like the idea of another economy becoming semi-detached, believing it could be easier for the Swiss to negotiate with the EU if Britain were in a similar position. A poll of 185 companies in March by the British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce found 13.5% believed Brexit would improve their fortunes. Universities on the continent, especially those that teach in English, could profit if EU students turn away from Britain. “No way will I send my daughter to study in London after Brexit,” says the mother of one teenager in Paris, predicting that fees in Britain would soar without EU caps. Jean-Christophe Babin, boss of Bulgari, a luxury-goods firm, says he would be untroubled by Brexit for different reasons: if the pound slumped, tourists would boost sales at his new flagship shop in London.

Lose an island, seize an opportunity

Polls suggest that public opinion in Europe expects and favours Britain voting to remain in the EU. Even the traditionally snooty French want their neighbours to stay, despite resenting Britain’s exemption on EU financial regulation, and its absence from the Schengen area for passport-free travel and the single currency. Most businesses on the continent are in the Remain camp, too. They see Brexit as, at best, a pain; and at worst, a threat. But the few that stand to gain would happily wave farewell to the Brits.