Assessing India

By The Data Team

INDIA is a continent masquerading as a country. Within a generation it will become the most populous country on earth: its population is likely to peak at some 1.6 billion by mid-century. As now, it will then have roughly one-sixth of all humanity within its borders. Look closer at its states or territories and great diversity becomes apparent. In the south and along the western coasts people are by and large wealthier, healthier, better educated and there are slower-growing populations of smaller families. The islands of the worst poverty, and the greatest social and environmental problems, are in the landlocked and massive northern states, such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In such states average incomes per year are still counted in just a few hundreds of dollars and populations continue to expand fast.

One measure of overall health and an indicator of future well-being is how babies fare in surviving illnesses, poor nutrition, accidents and more. Rates of infant mortality have been falling across India: on average, in 2013, there were 40 deaths in the first year of life out of every 1,000 live births. That is still high by international standards, but markedly better than the rate of 60 in 2003. However improvements are uneven. Once more, it is mostly the poorer, northern parts of India that endure the worst rates. The north is also more likely to see discrimination against girls, with fewer female foetuses surviving to birth, and girls more likely than boys to die in childhood.

Finally, in politics, there are obvious cleavages too. In the past couple of years the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has become more dominant, in large part thanks to the rise of Narendra Modi. The BJP has won several state elections since the end of 2013 and now controls large swathes of territory, stretching mostly across the west and the north. Congress, meanwhile, is clinging on at the fringes but probably faces further decline in state elections in the next few years. The biggest political question is whether one of the two massive northern states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar (which together have a population of over 300m people), might fall again into the control of the BJP or whether they remain under the control of independent, regional parties.

MORE: Read our Special Report on Modi's India here.