Aftermath

WHAT happens right after a natural disaster matters almost as much as what takes place during the calamity itself. The 7.9-magnitude earthquake that struck west of Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital, on April 25th toppled buildings and crushed the unlucky people inside. The death toll is now more than 3,200 in Nepal, with over 6,000 injured. If injured victims are not rescued and treated in time, if water and food supplies are insufficient, if proper hygiene is not preserved or if those made homeless are exposed to poor weather, then the risks for survivors grow.

Many Nepalis are now camping outside, fearful because of continuing aftershocks. Hospital patients are being treated in the street, for example, for broken limbs and pelvic fractures, amid fears of further damage to buildings. Unseasonal rains and storms are now expected. Drinking water, says one Kathmandu resident, is a problem. “A lot of people were outside at night without blankets,” he adds.

The number of known earthquake victims will certainly rise as it becomes clearer how smaller towns and villages have been affected, especially around Gorkha, in a mountainous area west of Kathmandu. Aerial photographs show collapsed houses on terraced hillsides. Avalanches triggered by the earthquake killed climbers on and around Mount Everest, with over 200 people still missing there. Tremors also killed dozens of people in neighbouring India, notably in Bihar state. There were also casualties in Tibet. On April 26th a fresh earthquake just east of Kathmandu, with a magnitude of 6.7, caused further panic, though apparently not more casualties.

There had in theory been abundant time for many international agencies and other aid donors to plan for an earthquake in Nepal, which is said to have 92 active fault lines. Nepal is stuffed with foreign experts, recruited to focus on precisely this sort of problem. Kathmandu is generally a pleasant place for foreign aid workers to live. Nepal has been host to at least a dozen UN agencies and a large contingent of foreign staff. At their peak, UN operations employed 3,000 in the country.

Natural disasters strike Nepal regularly, and the impact of these can be reduced by simple measures, such as better communications networks. Storms strike the mountains and kill locals and tourists caught in the open, but better warnings can save lives. Floods kill about 1,000 Nepalis a year. To some extent the steady spread of mobile phones and social media may help reduce the toll of disasters, by alerting people to coming storms, for instance, and spreading information about how to prepare for and respond to earthquakes.

Senior UN officials involved with humanitarian issues have long talked in private about their greatest fear in Nepal: a big earthquake compounded by a failure in governance. This earthquake, though severe, could have been even stronger. It is unclear whether Nepal's government can respond effectively. Foreign governments, however, are already doing so. India has taken the lead and started delivering aid while evacuating hundreds of its own citizens. China, Bhutan and Sri Lanka have also sent assistance, and others, including Pakistan and America, are promising to do so. How dire the humanitarian situation becomes will now depend in part on the weather as well as on how quickly better land access can be established from India to the mountainous territory that is worst affected.