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The strongest of the BRICS: India’s economy

Figures published today will confirm that India is a rare bright spot in the world economy. The consensus among forecasters is that GDP rose by 7.4% in the April-June quarter, compared with a year earlier—faster than China and way ahead of trouble-spots such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa. India’s economy is more resilient in part because the cooling Chinese economy accounts for less of its foreign trade. But the official figures probably overstate its growth. In February, India’s statistics office changed the way GDP is measured, boosting the reported growth rate by almost two percentage points. Greater weight was given to fast-growing small firms, but there are worries that their audited profit figures have been extrapolated to shell companies with no earnings. Yet even with two percentage points knocked off the growth rate, India’s economy is still doing well. And it’s probably not yet at full speed.

Aug 31st 2015
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