Leaders in Beijing will be watching closely when Taiwan goes to the polls on Saturday to choose a new president and parliament. Under Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang, who came to office in 2008, Taiwan has established much closer ties with China, its former enemy. Mr Ma is due to step down in May, as the constitution requires. China worries that his successor, widely expected to be Tsai Ing-wen of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, will be far warier of forging closer relations. The DPP, which may also gain a majority in the legislature, has traditionally favoured formal independence—a move that China has threatened could trigger war. As president, Ms Tsai would try to avoid fuelling cross-strait tensions; she has downplayed the independence issue. But she is less keen than Mr Ma on market-opening measures. China will treat her frostily.