A vote for peace

IN MAY 1964 the Colombian army launched an attack on a small group of communist sympathisers in the village of Marquetalia. Fifty years and tens of thousands of deaths later, the conflict with the guerrillas of the self-styled Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) is still not over. But the chance of a lasting peace is in sight—if voters give Juan Manuel Santos, the current president, a second term on June 15th.

That outcome of the election is far from certain. In the first round of voting on May 25th Mr Santos trailed Óscar Iván Zuluaga, a former finance minister whose bid is backed by Álvaro Uribe, Mr Santos’s charismatic predecessor as president. Both candidates expect to inherit supporters from rivals who have now left the race. Neither has electrified the contest: turnout in the first round was dismal. The two men are running neck-and-neck in the latest opinion polls.

The election will also matter. Mr Santos has bet his presidency and his reputation on peace talks with the FARC. Negotiations with the guerrillas have been taking place since 2012. Accords have already been reached on three of the five items on the agenda: land reform, the FARC’s political role and drug trafficking. Mr Santos claims, somewhat optimistically, that a final agreement can be achieved by the end of this year.

Mr Zuluaga is not a fan of the peace process. Although he has rowed back from a promise to suspend negotiations the moment he assumes office, he has set conditions (that the FARC immediately provide maps of minefields, for example) which seem designed to bring the talks to a premature end. His campaign has been hit by allegations of espionage against the negotiators. Many think the uncompromising Mr Uribe would pull the strings in a Zuluaga presidency. The former president took a hard line against the FARC in office, conducting a relentless military offensive against the guerrillas. He has never forgiven Mr Santos, once his defence minister and his chosen successor, for instigating the talks.

If the election offers a straight choice between war and peace, why is its outcome in doubt? One reason is that many Colombians do not believe the talks with the FARC will succeed. Previous peace efforts have come to nothing. There is no guarantee of a different outcome this time, but the circumstances are more propitious. Mr Uribe did much to weaken the FARC when he was in office; Mr Santos has maintained military operations against the guerrillas, so they have not been able to use the talks as a chance to regroup. The negotiations are following a strict agenda, without the political grandstanding that characterised past dialogue. In any case, abandoning them would not produce a quick military victory. With perhaps 8,000 fighters still under arms, the FARC remains the western hemisphere’s largest guerrilla army. While it avoids direct combat and takes advantage of Colombia’s difficult terrain it can never be bombed into submission.

Give peace a chance

Doubt that the talks will bear fruit is one reason for the voters’ ambivalence; worries about the price of success are another. Colombians like the idea of peace, but hate the thought of the guerrillas escaping punishment as part of a settlement. The last two items on the negotiating table—on victim reparations and transitional justice—are also the thorniest.

But the fear that Mr Santos will go easy on the FARC in order to get a deal done is overblown. This campaign has served to remind him of the depth of Colombians’ suspicions of the FARC: whatever happens, he will not have a mandate to seek peace at any cost. He has also promised that any accord will be put to voters, possibly in a special referendum. If Colombians dislike a deal, they will have the chance to reject it.

Opponents of the peace process point out that Colombia’s economy has done well enough despite the conflict: it is forecast to grow by 4.6% this year. Even if the FARC demobilises, other paramilitary gangs will still cause trouble. But the chance to end a half-century’s-worth of deaths, injuries and destruction is a precious thing. Of the two candidates, only Mr Santos can capitalise on it.