America’s misery index: a presidential ranking

By Buttonwood and the Data Team

THE misery index—adding together America's inflation and unemployment rates—has been a popular way of expressing national economic performance since the 1970s. Ronald Reagan won the 1980 presidential election (taking office in 1981) with the help of the slogan "Are you better off than you were four years ago?". Whether the president can take sole credit for improvements in these measures (or blame for their deterioration) is another matter; Congress and, even more so, the Federal Reserve, have a big impact. Still Reagan duly delivered on his promise, reducing the misery index more than any other president in the post-1952 era. Of course, a lot depends on the starting point; Reagan followed Jimmy Carter, the second-worst performer (Richard Nixon was bottom of the rankings).

The incumbent president, Barack Obama, ranked a respectable fourth in the table as he began his final year in office. Again, however, the starting point is significant. Prices were actually falling when he took charge; a further decline would have mired America in Japanese-style deflation. Ranked in terms of the change in unemployment, Obama is second. Indeed, if presidents were ranked purely in terms of unemployment reduction, a stark political divide emerges; Democrats take five of the top six places, and Republicans the bottom five. On inflation reduction, by contrast, Republicans have the top four places. The gap indicates the different priorities of the two parties.