Confounding some expectations, Vladimir Putin’s gambit has succeeded. Russia has made itself look indispensable in the Middle East; propped up the Assad regime; and bathed the Kremlin in martial glory—a handy distraction from mounting economic woes. The withdrawal announced late on Monday is mainly symbolic: Russia had few ground troops in Syria; its naval, air and intelligence bases remain open, and it says it will continue air strikes on “terrorists”. The main effect may be at peace talks in Geneva: it could put pressure on Bashar al-Assad to accept the political transition which the opposition demands (though the lull in fighting may also enable the regime to strengthen its hand). Having shown his clout, Mr Putin can also bargain with the West—about the sanctions it imposed over Ukraine, or about NATO’s plans to beef up defences in eastern Europe. Questions abound. Not least: what will be Russia’s next foreign-policy surprise?