The ruling party withstands citizens’ anger over a recent national tragedy
By S.C.S. | SEOUL
THE nationwide vote on June 4th, just fifty days after a ferry accident that claimed the lives of hundreds of schoolchildren, was billed as a referendum on Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s president, and her government’s failed rescue operation. Vying for almost 4,000 local seats, candidates unsurprisingly focused their campaigns on public safety. Almost all wore yellow ribbons, now a symbol of mourning for the victims; contenders of all political colours offered silent tributes from their campaign trucks. The ruling conservative party encouraged voters to “wipe away Ms Park’s tears”; the opposition threatened that the republic of Korea would “sink like the Sewol” if citizens did not act.
Voters, it seems, were not much impressed by these populist pledges. An entrenched regional bias in voting was evident once again in the 17 races which were most closely watched: posts for nine provincial governors and the mayors of eight major cities, which are often springboards to the presidency. Of the 17 key positions, the opposition won nine, one more than the ruling party; each side made easy wins in its political strongholds, in the south-west and south-east of the country respectively. Ms Park also enjoys continuing support from a cohort of voters old enough to remember her father, a strongman who ruled the country in the 1960s and 1970s. The mayorship for Seoul, the capital, was, as expected, cinched by the incumbent, the leftist and popular Park Won-soon.
The surprise was to be found in a regional position which, though influential, is not usually controversial: that of education superintendent. Though candidates are not affiliated with political parties, they can profess their political colours. In Seoul, against the odds, the progressive candidate won a landslide victory against both conservative incumbent and contender. Across the country, just four of the 17 positions for education chief went to conservative candidates, though they held ten from the previous local election, in 2010. Shin Yul, a political scientist at Myongji University in Seoul, sees that as a clear protest vote against educational authorities in the wake of the ferry accident.
In other races too the ruling party had good reason to be jittery. Ms Park’s approval rating tumbled from highs of over 60% in the first week of April to 46% a month later, shortly after the accident—her lowest since coming to power. Yet her party did well considering the accident. Frustration with the ruling party did not translate into support for the opposite camp (its disarray has been one of Ms Park’s chief political assets). Ms Park’s predecessor, Lee Myung-bak, was dealt a severe blow in the last local elections, in 2010, when the opposition won a sweeping victory after his own security disaster, when a South Korean navy ship was hit by a torpedo, presumed to be an attack from the North.
Indeed, Mr Shin says that local elections are known as the “grave” of the governing party: as with death, it is a fight one is almost certain to lose. In the past five local elections, the ruling party has triumphed only once, in 1998—and that was while a leftist government was in power. Mr Shin thinks it is a “big victory” for the conservatives, and interprets that as evidence of Ms Park’s personal influence. He even argues that a leftist win for the Seoul mayorship works in the president’s favour, by sidelining a rival faction within her own ruling party which, given more clout, could become a nuisance.
Others take a less sanguine view of the election outcome. Shin Gi-wook, a political sociologist at Stanford University, thinks the conservatives “avoided disaster” only by winning key swing seats by the narrowest of margins. The vote is a warning to Ms Park’s government—and one last chance for her, he says: “She cannot make another mistake.” She is likely to take the poll results as an opportunity to reform. She has already set in motion a cabinet reshuffle: in the last few weeks her prime minister has taken the flak for the botched rescue operation by resigning, and she has dismissed her spy chief and her national security adviser, both embroiled in political controversies. That will help to quell popular anger. To regain people’s trust, though, she will need to do more.
