Left turn

By J.P.

IN THE end the gap proved too big to close. For weeks the centre-right alliance under Fredrik Reinfeldt had been chipping away at the big lead of the centre-left block, led by the Social Democrats' Stefan Löfven. But after the election on September 14th Mr Reinfeldt conceded defeat and resigned as prime minister. He also said he would step down as leader of the Moderate Party.

Yet it will not prove easy for Mr Löfven to take his place. The Social Democrats, the Greens and the Left Party took 43.6% of the vote to the alliance's 39.5%. Mr Löfven can happily work with the Greens, but not so well with the ex-communist left. He is talking of trying to prise away smaller parties in the alliance, but will find that extremely hard. The far-right Sweden Democrats, with whom nobody will work, caused a stir by doubling their voting share to 13%. The most likely outcome is a weak minority government led by Mr Löfven that may have trouble passing a budget and will struggle to last a full four-year term.

Even so, Swedish voters have clearly turned against the centre-right and shifted leftwards. Given Sweden's relative economic success, this seems surprising. Some analysts are calling it a vote against austerity and spending cuts and in favour of a return to a more lavish welfare state. But it seems more likely that, after eight years of Mr Reinfeldt, the voters simply got bored and felt like a change. In any case, Mr Löfven's Social Democrats are fiscally prudent: they will raise taxes, but only a little, and they want to get to a budget surplus even sooner than was planned by the outgoing government.

The bigger impact of Mr Reinfeldt's departure and his replacement by a weak centre-left coalition may be felt abroad. On the European stage, Mr Reinfeldt was a firm ally of Britain's David Cameron and Germany's Angela Merkel. Had he stayed, he might have helped Mr Cameron with his efforts to reform the European Union. His government's public-service reforms, including the widespread use of private providers in education, were also a model for Mr Cameron. The Labour Party in Britain will be heartened by Mr Reinfeldt's defeat.

Within Europe, Mr Löfven is more likely to line up with the likes of France's Francois Hollande and Italy's Matteo Renzi. That will leave Mrs Merkel more lonely than before. Sweden is not in the euro, and is unlikely to join soon, so the colour of its government is less important to policy issues bearing on the euro zone. Still, despite Mr Löfven's prudent fiscal agenda, the arrival of a Social Democrat will lend support to those who think that austerity in Europe has gone too far and that both monetary and fiscal policy need to be relaxed.

The outgoing Swedish government (especially its foreign minister, Carl Bildt) was highly active in the recent quarrels with Russia over Ukraine. It is not clear who Mr Bildt's successor will be; some are suggesting another former prime minister, Goran Persson. But whoever becomes foreign minister, Sweden is likely to have a lower international profile than before. That, plus the shock of seeing the anti-immigrant extremist Sweden Democrats emerging as the country's third-biggest party, will constitute the most immediate consequences of this election.