Graphic detail | Political assassinations

Murder in Moscow

A Russian opposition leader's killing fits historical patterns

By THE DATA TEAM

LATE on February 27th Boris Nemtsov, a Russian opposition leader and former deputy prime minister, was shot four times in the back just a stone’s throw from the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, condemned the killing and promised to investigate. The brutality of what looks like a political assassination is shocking (even by the standards of an increasingly autocratic Russia), but such targeted killings have been on the rise since the 1970s, according to a report from the Combating Counter Terrorism Centre, a military think-tank.

Analysis of 758 assassinations suggests that 15 political targets were murdered each year from 1970 to 2013, up from just 5 per year from 1945-1969. A fifth of those in the more recent period took place in the Middle East and North Africa region. Killings in South-Asian countries have seen the biggest spike in recent years. Over three-quarters of them occurred after 1985 as Afghanistan and Pakistan became less stable. Assassinations in Russia and Eastern Europe, which rose sharply after 1995 amid a rocky transition towards democracy, make up 8% of all killings.

What little is known about Mr Nemtsov’s death fits with other data points. Though the ideology of Mr Nemtsov’s killer is still a mystery, 29% of perpetrators are seemingly motivated by ethnic or separatist sentiments. Short-range weapons like sub-machine guns and pistols are the most popular weapon among hit men, and leaders of political movements are often the victims in such crimes. Assassinations are also common in authoritarian regimes that do not quite qualify as totalitarian. If Mr Nemtsov's murder was politically motivated, it fits a pattern.

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