The political predator

WHEN Stephen Harper led his Conservatives to victory in 2006 and formed a minority government, few Canadians expected it to last. The Liberals, who had dominated national politics for much of the past century, saw it as an interregnum. They did not have the measure of Mr Harper. Through the force of his personality and his ideas, the prime minister kept his party in power, winning a second minority in 2008 and then a majority in 2011. By the middle of this month he will have been in office longer than all but seven of Canada’s 22 prime ministers. Love him or loathe him, as Canadians do in equal measure, no one can deny that he is a remarkably successful politician.

But as parliament reconvenes this month for the last complete session before a general election, scheduled for October 2015, Mr Harper is in trouble. The baggage accumulated by all long-serving governments is weighing him down. The economy, supposedly a Conservative strong point, is fragile. For the first time in a decade Mr Harper is facing a popular Liberal leader, in Justin Trudeau. Mr Harper dismisses speculation that he might resign as “surreal”. But the window may be closing on his long-term project to remake Canada in the Conservative image.