Final countdown

THE manned Soyuz mission thundering into space sends tremors through the observers, except for the impassive camels munching in the surrounding grasslands. Almost as stirring is the history of Russia’s main spaceport. From Baikonur—now in central Kazakhstan, then in the Soviet Union—Sputnik and Laika the dog blasted off in the 1950s, and Yuri Gagarin shot into orbit and fame in 1961.

These days the land is littered with rusty metal. Russia pays about $115m a year to lease the remote chunk of steppe. Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, launches most of its rockets from Baikonur: between 22 and 25 each year. Until America develops a new space taxi, the Soyuz is the only way to get people to the 15-nation International Space Station.

But Kazakhstan and its tenant are bickering. The chief of the Kazakh space agency, Kazcosmos, has threatened to tear up the lease. And Russia is building a new spaceport on its own territory, threatening to make the cosmodrome redundant.

Some Kazakhs would be happy to see the Russians leave. In July 2013 a Proton rocket carrying navigation satellites exploded after lift-off—the fourth Proton disaster at Baikonur in 14 years, say Kazcosmos officials. Kazakhstan tried to limit Proton launches because the rocket uses an especially toxic fuel. But Russia needs its workhorse. Thanks to the Proton, which launches only from Baikonur, Russia has held a third of the commercial space-launch market over the past decade, says Rachel Villain of Euroconsult, a space-industry consultancy.

Russia is speeding up construction of its Vostochny (“Eastern”) Cosmodrome near the Chinese border. In September Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said the project would guarantee that Russia remains an “independent” space power. He promised the first launch by 2015.

If Russia were to leave, Kazcosmos hopes to use Baikonur to develop its own space industry. Russia is supposed to train Kazakh scientists, says the agency’s deputy head, Erkin Shaimagambetov. But joint undertakings have failed before. In 2004 the two sides announced plans for a new generation of cleaner rockets, the Angara. Mr Shaimagambetov says arguments over money have derailed the project. Russia is scheduled to test its first Angara in December—but from a facility near the Arctic.

Back at the cosmodrome, Russia’s secret police control access to the nearby town of Baikonur, where the engineers live. The population shrank by a third after the Soviets left. Faded murals celebrate Soviet triumphs. Residents fear a Russian departure. “It will be a mess,” says a resident. “We won’t even have water.”

The Russians are unlikely to disappear overnight. An American engineer thinks Soyuz manned missions will not work at Vostochny because the capsules will not be able to make emergency landings there.

Meanwhile, Baikonur and Vostochny have a competitor: the European Space Agency’s spaceport in French Guiana, where Russia began launching Soyuzes three years ago. Because Guiana is close to the equator, rockets can blast off from there with twice the payload.

Russia’s Baikonur lease runs until 2050. But it can be broken with a year’s notice—a blink in space-industry time.