FEW people understand the twists and turns of the American legal system. But this much is clear: gay rights are advancing like a juggernaut. On October 6th the Supreme Court rebuffed appeals against court rulings legalising same-sex marriage in five states. Because of that precedent, the number of states that recognise gay wedlock may soon reach 35 or so out of 50. Next year the Supreme Court may strike down all remaining state bans on gay nuptials.
Gay life in much of the world has improved beyond measure in the past couple of generations. Gay sex was illegal until the 1960s in England, and until 2003 in Texas. China used to send homosexuals to labour camps without bothering to put them on trial. Now gay sex is legal in at least 113 countries, three dozen of which allow same-sex marriage or its near equivalent. In most rich countries gay couples can live together openly without raising so much as a neighbour’s eyebrow. In China, Japan, South Africa and much of Latin America gay life is far easier than ever before.
What caused this sudden and welcome change? One thing, above all: as more and more homosexuals came out of the closet, more and more straight people realised that their nieces, doctors or bowling buddies were gay. The proportion of Americans who say they have a gay friend, relative or co-worker has trebled since 1985, from less than 25% to 75%. Urbanisation has helped, too. It is far easier to find a gay-friendly niche in a big, anonymous city than to be the only gay in a traditional village. As the world grows more urban, the zone of tolerance will surely expand. Globalisation also makes a difference. Gay people who live in countries that treat them as outcasts or criminals now know, thanks to the internet, that there are plenty of countries where they would be treated as equals. Nothing inspires people to demand justice like the knowledge that others have done so before—and succeeded.
In some countries, the struggle for gay rights has barely begun. Five countries still execute homosexuals; another 73 criminalise gay sex. In Iran or Saudi Arabia, for a gay person to demand equal rights is to risk hanging or stoning. Many understandably prefer to live in secret or, if possible, move to a more tolerant country. Some politicians, such as Vladimir Putin and Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan, stir up anti-gay bigotry to distract voters from the corruption and ineptitude of their own governments. Yet in much of the world the opposite political calculus now applies. Recognising that gay people have equal rights is one of the few things a government can do that makes lots of voters very happy while costing no one else a penny. So gay rights, which are really human rights, are likely to spread even further.
