Free exchange | China's slowdown

From a very big base

By S.R. | SHANGHAI

MUCH of the analysis of China’s 2014 GDP data, which the government published today, has focused on the economy’s slowdown. That is, on one level, understandable. Growth of 7.4% was China’s weakest in 24 years (see chart below). It was also the first time this century that China has missed its official growth target, falling just short of the official goal of 7.5%. But on another level, the focus on the slowdown seems almost myopic. China joined an exclusive club last year: its economic output exceeded $10 trillion, making it only the second country to achieve that feat (America reached this level in 2000). At market exchange rates, China’s economic output was $10.3 trillion last year, more than five-times bigger than a mere decade ago, when it was $1.9 trillion.

Moreover, the increase in China’s economic size means that slower growth now generates as much additional demand as its turbo-charged growth did just a short time ago. Last year’s growth, even with subdued inflation, yielded an extra 4.8 trillion yuan in GDP, almost exactly the same as in 2007, when growth ran to 14.2% and inflation was far higher. And because the economy today includes more labour-intensive services than in the past, China is doing even better at creating new jobs: it added 13.2 million urban jobs last year, compared with 12 million in 2007.

More from Free exchange

Religious competition was to blame for Europe’s witch hunts

Many children are still persecuted as alleged witches in Africa for similar reasons

Has BRICS lived up to expectations?

The bloc of big emerging economies is surprisingly good at keeping its promises


How to interpret a market plunge

Whether a sudden sharp decline in asset prices amounts to a meaningless blip or something more depends on mass psychology