Over the borderline

WHEN Russia began bombing in Syria in September, it hoped the mission would be short and telegenic. It is quickly getting longer and uglier. Last month Islamic State (IS) affiliates downed a Russian airliner over Egypt. Then, on November 24th, Turkish jets shot down a Russian fighter-bomber near the Syrian border, the first hostilities between Russia and a NATO member since the end of the cold war.

Turkey said the Russian Su-24 had violated its airspace and was warned ten times before Turkish F-16s fired on it. Russia says its aircraft stayed over Syria. One pilot survived, but the other was killed, as was a Russian soldier involved in a rescue mission. A livid Vladimir Putin called the downing a “stab in the back” by “accomplices of terrorists”, accusing the Turkish government of protecting IS and allowing its oil trade to flourish across the Turkish border.

For Turkey, the clash follows months of frustration over Russia’s intervention. Both countries are fighting IS, but their priorities are often opposed. Turkey wants to overthrow Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, and to prevent Syrian Kurdish militias from gaining territory. Russia wants to protect Mr Assad, its longtime client, and is friendly with the Kurds. “Turkey’s strategy collapsed with Russia’s involvement,” says Nihat Ali Ozcan of the Economic Policy Research Foundation, a think-tank.

Turkish anger was compounded by Russian air strikes against villages inhabited by Turkomans (Syrians of Turkic origin), which, Russia says, harbour Islamist terrorists. Turkey’s foreign ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador last week, and raised the issue with the UN Security Council. An estimated 1,500 Turkomans have fled Syria for Turkey. The Russian fighter-bomber was operating in a Turkoman region, but the decision to shoot it down was ultimately driven by border-security concerns, not sympathy for the Turkomans, according to Mehmet Yegin, a Turkish security expert.

In public, Turkey’s NATO allies backed it. In private, many wondered whether Turkey could have been less provocative. Western leaders, including Barack Obama, sought to defuse tensions. On November 25th Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said his country had “no intention of escalating this incident”.

Mr Putin’s anger aside, Russia has little interest in escalation either. “We’re not planning to fight with Turkey,” said the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. But Russia may strike back asymmetrically, says Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, a think-tank. For example, joint energy projects, including the proposed Turkish Stream pipeline, could be put on hold. Turkey imports 20% of its energy from Russia; it may find those contracts at risk. The number of Russian tourists who visit Turkey, currently 3.5m a year, is likely to decline: Mr Lavrov advised them not to visit because of an alleged risk of terrorism, and Russia’s state tourism agency has banned tour operators from offering package trips.

Most troubling are the implications in Syria. François Hollande, France’s president, visited Moscow on November 26th to drum up support for an anti-IS alliance (see article). But NATO’s solidarity with Turkey has rankled Russia, which could intensify bombing of Syrian rebels with ties to Turkey, or give more support to Kurdish forces. Russia has announced it will arm its air base outside Latakia with its most sophisticated air-defence missile, the S-400. In Mr Erdogan, Mr Putin has encountered a fellow illiberal strongman given to macho posturing. Both are known for letting national pride drive their decisions; neither will back down easily.