Ted Cruz bows out after a string of big victories for Donald Trump

By THE DATA TEAM

OUTFLANKED on the populist right by Donald Trump, Ted Cruz threw in the towel in the Republican presidential-nomination race on May 3rd following his resounding defeat in the Indiana primary. Mr Cruz had been the first candidate of either party to announce that he was running for president all the way back in March 2015, with a speech that took aim at the “Washington establishment” and made a direct appeal to the evangelical base of the party. In the end evangelicals split their support, backing Mr Trump in some key states. In Indiana evangelicals accounted for 61% of the Republican electorate; half of them plumped for Mr Trump and 43% for Mr Cruz.

Mr Cruz had his moments during the campaign, especially in states that held caucuses (meetings dominated by local party activists) rather than primaries. Coming out of Super Tuesday he was only a few percentage points behind Mr Trump in the popular vote. His victory in Wisconsin in early April forced the normally irrepressible Mr Trump to tone down his act (relatively speaking). But things went awry for Mr Cruz after the New York primary on April 19th, which Mr Trump won handsomely. With such a split field early on in the race Mr Trump has taken around two-fifths of the popular vote overall. But he has taken 57% of the vote in the seven races since Wisconsin, compared with Mr Cruz’s 23%. Having never won a majority of the vote in any state before Wisconsin Mr Trump has taken more than 50% in each state since then. For all the talk of a contested convention, he is now only a couple of hundred delegates short of securing the majority he needs for the nomination, which a knockout win in California on June 7th will surely hand him. Meanwhile, with Bernie Sanders’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in Indiana, the Democratic race trundles on.

UPDATE: Shortly after the publication of this piece, and less than 24 hours after Ted Cruz's exit, it was reported that John Kasich will also be announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race.