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Voter turnout in British elections and EU referendums

Who makes it to polling station

By THE DATA TEAM

POLLING stations are now open for today’s EU referendum. The British electorate will spend the day deciding which side to vote for or, for some, whether to vote at all. As the final surveys put the Remain and Leave campaigns neck-and-neck, much will depend on whether those who are sitting on the fence get off it and head to the voting booths. Over the last few decades turnout for general elections has declined. It peaked in 1974 with 79% of registered voters, dipped to 59% in 2001 and then rose back up to 66% in 2015. Enthusiasm for the European democratic process tends to be even lower, with turnout for European Parliament elections consistently below 40%, reaching a nadir of 24% in 1999. But referendum votes—with their clear binary choice and sense of a direct say in the outcome—can draw more people to the ballot box. In the Scottish referendum on independence in 2014, turnout was 85%, the highest for any vote in Britain since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1928.

Political engagement in Britain varies considerably by demographic. The biggest determinant of whether Brits will vote is age, with turnout among 18- to 24-year-olds 35 percentage points less than among over-65s at the last election. Today’s result may well rest on whether younger voters play their part. They ought to: they are the ones who will have to live longest with the outcome.

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